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1、30年代美国股灾的反思及对中国股市的启示On30stheU.S.stockmarketcrashandtherevelationof"Chinesestockmarketeconomiccircles"in2007SixthAbstract:in1930s,thecollapseofthestockmarketasthefuseoftheGreatDepressionoftheUnitedStates,thehistoryofChins'seconomicdevelopmentmorereferenceandi
2、nspiration.BasedontheanalysisofthecausesofthestockmarketcrashintheUnitedStates,comparesthecurrentdevelopmentsituationofChinastockmarketandthedepressionperiodofthestockmarket,thereisaremarkablesimilaritybetweenthetwo,andthenpointedoutthattheChinastockmarketdu
3、etotheseriousspeculationexistinthestockmarketbubbleislarger,theneedforpolicyguidance,torealizethehealthydevelopmentofthestockmarketChinese.Keywords:capitalmarketcrashChinasoftlandingI.Thepropositionoftheproblem一一Petrov,arepresentativeoftheAustriaschoolIn2004
4、,itwaspredictedthatarisingeconomicgiant,China,wouldinevitablyfallintoagreatdepression,justasAmericadidin1930."TheInterAmericanDevelopmentBankchiefeconomistGoulemotCalvoconductedastudyin2005,therearemanysimilaritiesbetweenthe31emergingcountrieshavefoundthegre
5、atdepressionin1930sand1980aftertheeconomiccrisis,inrecentdecades,theGreatDepressionofthemostfundamentalcontentisrepeatedinmanycountries,theonlydifferenceissmaller・Usually:thefirstisfinancialmarketvolatility,followedbyrapiddeclineingdp・Petrov'sremarkssoundabi
6、talarmistatfirst,butCalvo,sresearchhashadtogiveseriousthoughttothecurrentstockmarketandpotentialrisksinchina.In30sthegreatdepressionwassparkedbythecrashof1929,andChinaalsoexperiencedrapideconomicgrowthofmorethantenyears,thestockmarketfromJuly2005toMay2007,le
7、ssthantwoyears,theShanghaiCompositeIndexfromthelowestpointof998rushedto4330pointsoverfourtimes・IsthereabubbleinChina，sstockmarket?IsthereanysimilaritybetweenChina，spresenteconomicdevelopmentandtheeconomicsituationbeforetheGreatDepressionoftheUnitedStates,and
8、willChina，seconomyfallintodepressionifonedayChina，sstockmarketbubblebursts(ifithasbubbles)?Tosolvetheseproblems,thispaperattemptstostudythe30sstockmarketcrashandthegreatdepression,toexploreChina
