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1、InmemoryofAmosTverskyContentsIntroductionPartI.TwoSystems1.TheCharactersoftheStory2.AttentionandEffort3.TheLazyController4.TheAssociativeMachine5.CognitiveEase6.Norms,Surprises,andCauses7.AMachineforJumpingtoConclusions8.HowJudgmentsHappen9.AnsweringanEasierQuestionPartII.Heuristic
2、sandBiases10.TheLawofSmallNumbers<5>11.Anchors12.TheScienceofAvailability13.Availability,Emotion,andRisk14.TomW’sSpecialty15.Linda:LessisMore16.CausesTrumpStatistics17.RegressiontotheMean18.TamingIntuitivePredictionsPartIII.Overconfidence19.TheIllusionofUnderstanding20.TheIllusiono
3、fValidity21.IntuitionsVs.Formulas22.ExpertIntuition:WhenCanWeTrustIt?23.TheOutsideView24.TheEngineofCapitalismPartIV.Choices25.Bernoulli’sErrors26.ProspectTheory27.TheEndowmentEffect28.BadEvents29.TheFourfoldPattern30.RareEvents31.RiskPolicies32.KeepingScore33.Reversals34.Framesand
4、RealityPartV.TwoSelves35.TwoSelves36.LifeasaStory37.ExperiencedWell-Being38.ThinkingAboutLifeConclusionsAppendixA:JudgmentUnderUncertaintyAppendixB:Choices,Values,andFramesAcknowledgmentsNotesIndexIntroductionEveryauthor,Isuppose,hasinmindasettinginwhichreadersofhisorherworkcouldbe
5、nefitfromhavingreadit.Mineistheproverbialofficewatercooler,whereopinionsaresharedandgossipisexchanged.Ihopetoenrichthevocabularythatpeopleusewhentheytalkaboutthejudgmentsandchoicesofothers,thecompany’snewpolicies,oracolleague’sinvestmentdecisions.Whybeconcernedwithgossip?Becauseiti
6、smucheasier,aswellasfarmoreenjoyable,toidentifyandlabelthemistakesofothersthantorecognizeourown.Questioningwhatwebelieveandwantisdifficultatthebestoftimes,andespeciallydifficultwhenwemostneedtodoit,butwecanbenefitfromtheinformedopinionsofothers.Manyofusspontaneouslyanticipatehowfri
7、endsandcolleagueswillevaluateourchoices;thequalityandcontentoftheseanticipatedjudgmentsthereforematters.Theexpectationofintelligentgossipisapowerfulmotiveforseriousself-criticism,morepowerfulthanNewYearresolutionstoimproveone’sdecisionmakingatworkandathome.Tobeagooddiagnostician,ap
8、hysicianneedstoacquirealar
