thinking fast and slow.雅黑6寸版

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1、ContentsIntroductionPartI.TwoSystems1.TheCharactersoftheStory2.AttentionandEffort3.TheLazyController4.TheAssociativeMachine5.CognitiveEase6.Norms,Surprises,andCauses7.AMachineforJumpingtoConclusions8.HowJudgmentsHappen9.AnsweringanEasierQuestionPartII.HeuristicsandBiases10.TheLawofSmallNumbers11.

2、Anchors12.TheScienceofAvailability13.Availability,Emotion,andRisk14.TomW’sSpecialty15.Linda:LessisMore16.CausesTrumpStatistics17.RegressiontotheMean18.TamingIntuitivePredictionsPartIII.Overconfidence19.TheIllusionofUnderstanding20.TheIllusionofValidity21.IntuitionsVs.Formulas22.ExpertIntuition:Wh

3、enCanWeTrustIt?23.TheOutsideView24.TheEngineofCapitalismPartIV.Choices25.Bernoulli’sErrors26.ProspectTheory27.TheEndowmentEffect28.BadEvents29.TheFourfoldPattern30.RareEvents31.RiskPolicies32.KeepingScore33.Reversals34.FramesandRealityPartV.TwoSelves35.TwoSelves36.LifeasaStory37.ExperiencedWell-B

4、eing38.ThinkingAboutLifeConclusionsAppendixA:JudgmentUnderUncertaintyAppendixB:Choices,Values,andFramesAcknowledgmentsNotesIndexIntroductionEveryauthor,Isuppose,hasinmindasettinginwhichreadersofhisorherworkcouldbenefitfromhavingreadit.Mineistheproverbialofficewatercooler,whereopinionsaresharedand

5、gossipisexchanged.Ihopetoenrichthevocabularythatpeopleusewhentheytalkaboutthejudgmentsandchoicesofothers,thecompany’snewpolicies,oracolleague’sinvestmentdecisions.Whybeconcernedwithgossip?Becauseitismucheasier,aswellasfarmoreenjoyable,toidentifyandlabelthemistakesofothersthantorecognizeourown.Que

6、stioningwhatwebelieveandwantisdifficultatthebestoftimes,andespeciallydifficultwhenwemostneedtodoit,butwecanbenefitfromtheinformedopinionsofothers.Manyofusspontaneouslyanticipatehowfriendsandcolleagueswillevaluateourchoices;thequalityandcontentoftheseanticipatedjudgmentsthereforematters.Theexpecta

7、tionofintelligentgossipisapowerfulmotiveforseriousself-criticism,morepowerfulthanNewYearresolutionstoimproveone’sdecisionmakingatworkandathome.Tobeagooddiagnostician,aphysicianneedstoacquirealargesetoflabelsfordiseases