全球-投资策略-轻松的结局：多资产方向

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1、Theendofeasy14November2018abcMULTI-ASSETGLOBALMulti-AssetDirection4Weintroduceastrategicandtacticalframeworkforourmulti-assetstrategy4Thissuggeststhatayear-endrallyforriskassetsisunlikelyandthat2019mightbeincreasinglychallenging4WehighlightourkeyHSBCstrategyandmacroviewsUSEurozonecoreEurozoneno

2、n-coreUKJapanHSBCASSETCLASSCONVICTIONSTactical,6-monthCurrentconvictionsGovernmentbonds---N+++ThisfirsteditionofourmonthlyMulti-AssetDirectionoutlinesourhouseviewsonthemacroeconomicandfinancialmarketoutlook,andsetsoutatacticalandstrategicmulti-assetframeworkwhichwewillupdateregularlyinfuturepubl

3、ications.PartI:GlobaldirectionWehaveconstructedtwoindicatorsthatformaframeworkformulti-assetstrategy:1.Ourmacro-cycleindicatorscombineaseriesoflagging,coincident,andleadingindicatorsintooneserieswithaparticularfocusontheUS.Thisservestoshapeourstrategicmulti-assetview(3-5years).2.Oursurprisediffus

4、ionindicatorsgaugethebreadthofHSBC’sactivitysurpriseindicesacrossmajorglobaleconomies.Theyguideourtacticalview(3-6months).Ourmacro-cycleindicatorsmakethestrategiccaseforequities,andbearishcaseforcredit.Wealsobelievethissignalsthatayear-endrallyforriskassetsisunlikely.Ourdecliningsurprisediffusion

5、indicatorsmakethetacticalcaseforadefensivestanceinequities,inlinewithourequitystrategists’currentthinking.Finally,switchingfromashorttolongdurationstanceinDMrateswouldbebeneficialinourview,particularlyinUSTreasuries.Combiningtheresultsofournewframeworkwithoureconomists’weakeroutlookfortheglobalec

6、onomynextyear,webelievethat2019willbeincreasinglychallengingforriskassets.Performancedifferentiationbetweensovereignfixedincomeandequitieswilllikelydecline.Thisisprobablytheendofeasy:thebenignmarketconditionsandwidedifferentialinassetclassperformanceslooksettofade.Henceinvestorswillneedtoinvestmu

7、chmoretacticallyinthecomingyear.PartII:HSBCkeyassetclassviewsWeprovidekeyHSBCstrategyandmacroviewsacrossGlobalResearch.Thisincludes:Keyforecaststables,Fundamentalbackground,DMcross-assetviews,andEMcross-assetviews.Weal