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1、EQUITYRESEARCHREPORTFOOD&BEVERAGEOctober2018By:KatharineSong(S1700517120001)https://www.research.hsbc.comChinaBaijiuAtoasttothenationaldrinkDrinkingbaijiuispartofdailylifeinChina,whichmakesitacompellingdomesticconsumerstoryinatimeoftariffsWeshowhowtheaddressablemarketisgrowingandexplai
2、nwhyleadingcompaniescanincreasetheirmarketshareInitiatecoverageonfourstocksandassumecoverageonindustryleadersKweichowMoutaiandWuliangye;Moutaiisourpreferredpick(Buy)Disclaimer&Disclosures:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwithth
3、eDisclaimer,whichformspartofitChina’snationaldrink:baijiu’sleadingcompaniesConsumptionDespitethebigchangeinthecustomerbase,Baijiu’sshareofoverallalcoholconsumptionremainsstable,inlinewithglobaltrendsDemographicsandurbanisationConsumerswhohavemovedintocitiesnowhavemoremoney,attachgreat
4、erimportancetobrandandqualityanddon’tmindpayingforitASPthelong-termdriverTheconsumptionupgradestoryisnotlimitedtothehighend–itistakingplacethroughouttheproductrangeallthewaydowntothemassmarketTotalalcoholsalesinChina,marketshareBaijiusaleswillbenefitfromurbanisationSalesvolumeof3maj
5、orhigh-endBaijiubrandsUrbanisationrate(RHS)Monthlydisposableincomeofurbanresidentspercapita(LHS)70,000Other50%Baijiu2012tonnes60,00050,00013%CAGR2018e-20e46%201748%49%TotalalcoholicdrinksbymarketshareTopsixbaijiucompanyrevenuemix40,00030,00020,00010,000BeersalesinGermanyWinesales
6、inFrance02012201420162018e2020e80,00060,00081,00019.6%21.6%20122017demand……butsupplylimitedtoMarketshareoftopfivebaijiucompaniesDemandforhigh-endbaijiu(tonnes)CurrentEstimatedsupplyby2020WehavefourstocksratedBuyBUYBUYBUYBUYKweichowMoutai(600519CH)Moutai,themarketleaderinrevenue,isthe
7、mostrecognisedbrandandhasstrongpricingpowerWuliangye(000858CH)Corepremiumproducts,ledbyPuwu(52-degreeWuliangyeClassic),contributed71%oftotalrevenueYangheBrewery(002304CH)Famousregionalbaijiucompanywithtwobigbrands,andrankedthirdinsalesrevenueLuzhouLaojiao(000568CH)LuzhouLaojiaoisr
