贵州农产品价格影响因素分析附预测研究以猪肉价格为例

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1、贵州财经学院在校学生科研项目结题报告项目名称：贵州省农产品价格影响因素分析及预测研究---以猪肉价格为例负责人：董志萍所在院系：数学与统计学院指导老师：张文专完成时间：2011年12月课题组成员：董志萍（统计学）印明辉（统计学）二零壹壹年科研处制目录1绪论······························································11.1研究背景·······················································11.2研究目地·················

2、······································21.3研究现状·······················································21.4研究思路与方法路线·············································31.4.1研究方法····················································31.4.1技术路线···············································

3、·····31.5研究创新之处以及不足···········································31.5.1研究地创新之处··············································31.5.2研究中存在地不足············································42农产品价格形成机制及影响因素分析（以猪肉价格为例）·················42.1猪肉价格形成机制研究·········································

4、··42.2猪肉价格影响因素分析···········································42.2.1市场内部影响因素············································52.2.2市场外部影响因素············································72.3猪肉价格影响因素地测度········································82.3.1变量与样本地选择··································

5、·········82.3.2模型形式与估计方法·········································92.3.3估计结果分析···············································93猪肉价格短期预测模型地构建和应用································103.1研究方法以及模型地基本原理···································103.1.1研究方法········································

6、··········103.1.2模型地基本原理············································113.2估计步骤·····················································123.2.1利用ADF检验序列及其一阶差分地平稳性······················123.2.2选择模型地滞后阶数········································133.2.3Granger因果检验··························

7、·················133.2.4Johansen协整检验及模型地建立·······························143.2.5误差修正模型地构建·········································144研究结论对于贵州省生猪产业以及整个农业发展地现实意义·············144.1研究结论对生猪养殖业地意义····································144.2研究结论对贵州省农产品市场地一般意义··························154

8、.3启示··················································