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1、11October2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchHealthcareTechnology&DistributionAnimalTracksResearchAnalystsErinWilsonWright2125384080erin.wright@credit-suisse.comCharlesLederer,CPA2125381822charles.lederer@credit-suisse.comKatieTryhane2123252713katie.tryhane@credit-suisse.comGeorgeEngrof
2、f2123252289george.engroff@credit-suisse.comCHANNELCHECKSurveysays:3Qvetdemandhasbite■3QVetpracticevolume,revenuegrowthsustainsstrength:Accordingtoourproprietarysurveyof75UScompanionanimalveterinarians,77%ofpracticesexperiencedpositiverevenuegrowthin3Q(vs.80%in2Q18),rising2.3%onaweightedavg
3、.basis,aslightdecelerationrelativetothe2Qexperience(+2.4%).Newpatienttraffic(+2.1%)wasthemostmeaningfuldriverofpracticerevenues,followedbyacutevisits(+1.6%),diagnostictesting(+1.5%),andprice(+1.5%).VetsremainoptimisticonNTMtrends,consistentwithourrecentsurveys,whichbodeswellforourAnimalHea
4、lthuniverse.■AnimalPharm–TopPickZoetis(ZTS):Newcommentaryinoursurvey,nearlyhalf(49%)ofrespondentsselectedZTSasthebestpositionedanimalhealthcompany(vs.29%forthenexthighestrankedco.),withad-hoccommentarynotingits“powerhouse”positioningsupportedbyinnovationandadiverseportfolio(i.e.ABAXIS).Fee
5、dbackonZTS'satopicdermatitisportfolio(Apoquel,Cytopoint)wasincrementallypositive,withbroad-basedenthusiasmforCytopoint(usedby88%ofrespondents,vs.81%in2Q),notedascomplementarywithApoquel(suggestingminimalcannibalization).ZTSremainsourtoppickinAH,givenitsdiverse,durableportfolio,R&Dpipeline,
6、ongoingmarginexpansionopportunities,andcapitaldeploymentoptionality.Focusintothe3Qprintwillbeonbasegrowthtrends,guidancerevisions(FX,globaltradedynamics,ABAXIScontributions),andR&Dpipelineupdate(SimparicaTrio).Allin,thesurveyenhancesourconvictioninZTS’UScompanionanimalbusiness(25%ofrevenue
7、s),whereweforecast+14.3%salesgrowthin3Q.■NewSurveyHighlights–HSICSpinCo/VetsFirstChoice:Weconductedadeeperdiveanalysisonevolvingsupplychaindynamicsaheadofthependingspin/merger/IPO(YE18/1Q19,seenote:AnimalTracks:VetsFirstChoiceOnDeck)ofHenrySchein’sanimalhealth
