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1、医疗保险HealthInsurance医疗保险HealthInsurance提供一种分散由疾病引起的财务风险的方式Provideawaytodiversifyfinancialrisksassociatedwithillness医疗保险的需求理论Thetheoryofdemandforhealthinsurance个人希望最大化其效用Anindividualwishestomaximizehisorherutility如果事件确定，每个人最大化其确定的效用iftherearecertainevents,individualmaximizeshisorhercertai
2、ntyutility如果事件不确定，每个人最大化其期望效用ifthereareuncertainevents,individualmaximizeshisorherexpectedutility医疗保险HealthInsurance期望效用Expectedutility＝生病的概率×生病时的财富所带来的效用＋健康的概率×健康时的财富所带来的效用=probabilityofillness×utilityofwealthwithillness+probabilityofhealthy×utilityofwealthwithhealthy例子，假设Example,assum
3、e约翰有$20,000的年收入，年内没有储蓄和贷款Johnhas$20,000annualincome,nosavingandborrowing健康的概率95%，医疗支出为0，财富为$20,000With95%probability,hewillbehealthy.Whenheishealthy,hishealthcareexpenditureis0andhiswealthis$20,000生病的概率5%，医疗支出$10,000，财富$10,000with5%probability,hewillbesick.Whenheissick,hishealthcareexpe
4、nditureis$10,000andhiswealthisreducedto$10,000.医疗保险HealthInsurance两种可选的行动方案Twoalternativecoursesofaction他可以购买保险，承担一个数目不大的保险费Hecanpurchaseinsuranceandincurasmalllossintheformoftheinsurancepremium他也可以自我保险Hecanself-insure生病概率小，但是一旦生病损失很大smallpossibilityofalargelossiftheillnessoccurs不生病的概率大
5、，也没有医疗支出largepossibilitythatthemedicallosswillnotoccur问题：哪种选择可以使他的效用最大化？Question:whichchoiceprovideshimwithahigherlevelofutility医疗保险HealthInsurance如果约翰购买医疗保险IfJohnwouldbuyhealthinsurance保险费＝预期医疗保健支出insurancepremium=expectedhealthcareexpenditure=95%×0+5%×10,000=500他的财富＝20,000-500=19500Hi
6、swealth=20,000-500=19500他的确定效用＝Hiscertaintyutility=如果约翰不愿购买医保IfJohnwouldn'tbuyhealthinsurance他的财富将是$20,000或者$10,000hiswealthcouldbe$20,000or$10,000他的预期效用＝hisexpectedutility=医疗保险HealthInsurance约翰的偏好——财富的效用John’spreference--utilityofwealth财富效用边际效用10,00010012,00013014,00015516,00016818,000
7、17619,50017820,000180医疗保险HealthInsurance约翰的财富的效用John’sutilityofwealth如果他购买保险，其确定效用＝ifhewouldbuyinsurance,hiscertaintyutility=U(财富=19500)=178如果他不愿购买保险，其期望效用＝ifhewouldn'tbuyinsurance,hisexpectedutility=5%×U(w=10,000)+95%×U(w=20,000)=5%×100+95%×180=176约翰的确定效用大于期望效用John’scertaintyu
