米什金货币金融学(英文)ppt (26)

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1、Chapter26TransmissionMechanismsofMonetaryPolicy:TheEvidence©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.TwoTypesofEmpiricalEvidenceStructuralModelEvidenceMiIYReducedFormEvidenceM?YStructuralModelEvidenceAdvantages:1.Understandcausationbecausemoreinformationonlinkbetw

2、eenMandY2.KnowinghowMaffectsYhelpsprediction3.CanpredicteffectsofinstitutionalchangesthatchangelinkfromMtoYDisadvantages:1.Structuralmodelmaybewrong,negatingalladvantages©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.2ReducedFormEvidenceAdvantages:1.NorestrictionsonhowMa

3、ffectsY:betterabletofindlinkfromMtoYDisadvantages:1.Reversecausationpossible2.ThirdfactormayproducecorrelationofMandY3©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.EarlyKeynesianEvidenceEvidence:1.GreatDepression:ionT-bondstolowlevelsmonetarypolicywas“easy”2.Nostatist

4、icallinkfromitoI3.Surveys:nolinkfromitoIObjectionstoKeynesianevidenceProblemswithstructuralmodel1.ionT-bondsnotrepresentativeduringDepression:iveryhighonlow-gradebonds:Figure1inCh.62.irmorerelevantthani:irhighduringDepression:Figure13.MsduringDepression(

5、FriedmanandSchwartz):money“tight”4.WrongstructuralmodeltolookatlinkofiandI,shouldlookatirandI:evidencein1and2suspect©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.4RealandNominalInterestRates5©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.EarlyMonetaristEvidenceMonetaristevidenceisreduc

6、edformTimingEvidence(FriedmanandSchwartz)1.PeakinMsgrowth16monthsbeforepeakinYonaverage2.LagisvariableCriticisms:1.Usesprinciple:Posthoc,ergopropterhoc2.Principleonlyvalidiffirsteventisexogenous:i.e.,ifhavecontrolledexperiment3.Hypotheticalexample(Fig2):R

7、eversecausationfromYtoMandyetMsgrowthleadsY6©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.HypotheticalExampleinWhichM/MleadsY7©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.StatisticalEvidenceHorserace:correlationofAvsMwithY;FriedmanandMeiselman,MwinsCriticisms:1.Reversecausationfrom

8、YtoM,orthirdfactordrivingMandYarepossible2.Keynesianmodeltoosimple,unfairhandicap3.AmeasurepoorlyconstructedPostmortemwithdifferentmeasuresofA:noclear-cutvictory8©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.HistoricalEvidenceFrie