米什金货币金融学(英文)ppt (28)

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1、Chapter28RationalExpectations:ImplicationsforPolicy©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.LucasCritiqueLucaschallengesusefulnessofeconometricmodelsforpolicyevaluation1.CritiquefollowsfromREimplicationthatchangeinwayvariablemoves,changeswayexpectationsareformed2.Policychange,changesrelatio

2、nshipbetweenexpectationsandpastbehavior3.Estimatedrelationshipsineconometricmodelchange4.Therefore,can’tbeusedtoevaluatechangeinpolicyExample:EvaluateeffectonlongratefromBankpolicyraisingshort-termipermanently,ifinpastchangesiniquicklyreversed1.Estimatedtermstructurerelationshipind

3、icatesonlysmallchangeinlongrate2.Oncerealizeshortipermanently,averagefutureshortratesalot,longratealot3.AnotherimplicationofLucasanalysis:expectationsaboutpolicyinfluencesresponsetopolicy2©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.NewClassicalModelAssumptions:1.Rationalexpectations2.Wagesan

4、dpricescompletelyflexible,adjustfullytochangesinexpectedpricelevelImplications:1.Policyineffectivenessproposition:anticipatedpolicyhasnoeffectonbusinesscycle2.Effectsofpolicyareuncertainbecausedependonexpectations3.Nobeneficialeffectfromactivistpolicy:supportsnonactivism©2005Pearso

5、nEducationCanadaInc.3ResponsetoUnanticipatedPolicyinNewClassicalModel1.M,ADshiftsrighttoAD22.BecauseMunanticipated,expectedpricelevelunchangedandASstaysatAS13.Goto2':Y,P4©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.ResponsetoAnticipatedPolicyinNewClassicalModel1.M,ADshiftsrighttoAD22.Man

6、ticipated,expectedpriceleveltoP2,ASshiftsintoAS23.Goto2:Yunchanged,Pbymore5©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.NewKeynesianModelAssumptions:1.Rationalexpectations2.Wagesandpriceshaverigidity:don’tadjustfullytochangesinexpectedpricelevelImplications:1.Unanticipatedpolicyhaslargereffect

7、onYthananticipatedpolicy2.Policyineffectivenessdoesnothold:AnticipatedpolicydoesaffectY3.Doesnotruleoutbeneficialeffectfromactivistpolicy4.However,effectsofpolicyareaffectedbyexpectations:designingpolicyistough©2005PearsonEducationCanadaInc.6ResponsetoExpansionaryPolicyinNewKeynesi

8、anModel1.M,ADshiftsouttoA