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1、20July2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchHealthcareTechnology&Distribution3katie.tryhane@credit-suisse.comDrugDistributorUpdateSECTORREVIEW2QPreview:Dissectingintra-quartertrends■2QPreview&Themes:Sharesfordrugdistributors,includingAmerisourceBergen(ABC,Outperform),CardinalH
2、ealth(CAH,Outperform),andMcKesson(MCK,Underperform),arecurrentlytradingata7.9xFY+2EV/EBITDAonaverage,ameaningfuldiscounttotheir8.9xfive-yearhistoricalaverage,withongoingconcernsrelatedtodrugpricing,contractrenewals,andAmazonheadlinesreverberatingacrossthesupplychain,inadditionto
3、company-specificheadwindsrangingfromcontinuedintegrationheadwinds,Medicalsegmentwoes(CAH),andmanufacturingsuspensions(ABC).Still,ourviewisthatsomestabilityinthegenericdrugpricingenvironment(assupportedbyouranalysisandindustrycommentary)shouldsetupthedistributorsforpotentiallyles
4、svolatilereports,barringanymajorcontractshifts,andourfocusisincreasinglyoncontributionsfromfastergrowing,moreprofitable,andoftentimesmorecapitalefficientancillarybusinesses,relevanttoourthesesforoursupplychaincompanies,whereweviewABCasrelativelybetterpositioned.■LacklusterRxvolu
5、me,butmorestablegenericpricingdynamics:AccordingtoIQVIA,adj.prescriptionvolumedeclined1.0%inJune,adecelerationfromthe-0.5%trendexperiencedinbothMayandApril(2Qaveragevolumegrowthof-0.7%).BasedonouranalysisofthetotalgenericdrugsalesasreportedbyIQVIAonanunweightedbasis,thesell-side
6、ASPforgenerictherapeuticsfell11.2%(-4.9%weightedbysales)onaverageinMay,followinga13.8%decline(-5.1%weightedbysales)inApril,excludingLTMnewgenericlaunches.Moreover,accordingtoAprilNADACdata,asurveyperformedbytheCMStogaugetheaveragenationalacquisitioncostsforretailpharmaciesacross
7、theUS,73%ofallreportedgenericsexperiencedpricedeclinesinexcessof5%,onlyslightlyhigherthantheMarchexperience(68%).Forcontext,ongoinggenericpricedeflationoverthepastyear+,hasweighedondrugdistributors,aspricedeclineshaveledtolowergrossprofitdollars,andwhilewedonotexpectasignificant
8、reversalNT,thesupplychaingrouphasnotedstabilizi
