巴克莱-美股-半导体行业-美国半导体行业2017年三季度预览

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1、EquityResearch18October2017U.S.SemiconductorsINDUSTRYUPDATE3Q17Preview:AAPLSupplyChainU.S.SemiconductorsInterestingAfterUnderperformanceNEUTRALUnchangedTheSemiconductorgrouplikelycontinuestowork(best-performingS&PsectorYTD),andweexpecta7thconsecutiveposit

2、iveearningsperiod(seeFigure1)asmostendForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandmarkets(exceptOpticalandwireless)remainhealthyleadingtobetterresults/earningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseeguidance.TheIndustrial/Analogtradelikelyisn’toveryetbutwebelievethereism

3、oretableonpage2.interestingupsideinAAPLleverednames(AVGOandSWKS)aftertradingsidewaysforU.S.SemiconductorsthepastthreemonthsonIP8/IPXconcernsvs.groupup10%+.BlayneCurtisTheWaitingontheAAPLCycleistheHardestPart:Investorshavestayedawayfrom+16173424101AAPLleve

4、rednamesandtheyhaveunderperformedtheSOXandinparticularblayne.curtis@barclays.comAnalog/Industrialnamesoverthepastthreemonths(especiallyinthelastmonth;seeBCI,USFigure8).Weattributethistouncertaintyaroundsellthrough,timing,andmixwhileThomasO'Malleyunderlyin

5、gmacroeconomicdatahasbeenstrong.Webelievetheworryisoverblownas+121252606921)suppliershavealwaysbeenmoreconservativethanAAPLanalystssotheeffectisthomas.o'malley@barclays.comsmaller,2)therealstoryisaboutIPX…assumingthephonesells(limitedAndroidBCI,UScompetit

6、ionwithno3Dsensinguntil2H18attheearliest),and3)anyinitialsupplyJerryZhangconstraintsspillintoQ1withabettercyclefornextyear(twonewOLEDmodels).+12125263069WeWon’tBackDownonRF:jerry.zhang@barclays.comBroadcom(AVGO,TopPick-OW/Neu;PT$300):AVGOisleveredtotheBC

7、I,USCDMAversionsandtheIPXandshouldsee~40%blendedcontentgainswithGarrettHindsabiastowards1Q18.Thecompanyhasbest-in-classgrowthandprofitability+12125266374atacompellingvaluation.Webelievethereislikelya50%dividendincreaseingarrett.hinds@barclays.comDecember,

8、whichwouldgiveAVGOasuperioryieldata25-50%valuationBCI,USdiscounttootherAnalognameswithlessriskshouldIndustrialcorrect.Skyworks(SWKS,OW/Neu;PT$120):WilllikelyguideDecemberconservativelyasmanagementwillwanttoseeasmuc