全球油田服务：国际市场在觉醒

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1、27July2018EQUITIESENERGYEQUIPMENT&SERVICESUnitedStatesGlobalOilfieldServicesTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)abcWellServices:Internationalmarketiswakingup4Increasingsignsofapricingrecoveryi

2、ninternationalmarkets;USonshoredealingwithofftakebottlenecksinPermian4LNGmarketpickingupbutlong-cycleoffshorebusinesslinesstillfacingprospectofaslowrecovery4BuyBakerHughesGE(TPUSD44)andHalliburton(USD56vsUSD62),HoldonSchlumberger(TPUSD70vsUSD74)What’snew:Weareseeingaphasing-outofde

3、mandinPermianasoperatorsaddfewer-than-expectedrigsduetoofftakebottlenecks.Thereisalsocontinuedcostinflationduetosupplyconstraintsintruckingandsand.Thishashaltedmarginexpansion(atleastinthenearterm)withacorrespondingimpactonnear-termearnings.Butthereisgoodnewsintheinternationalmarke

4、t,whichisfinallyturningwithcompaniesguidingfordouble-digitgrowthin2019.Wealsoexpectpricingtorecoverasexistingcapacityisbeingabsorbedonvolumerecovery.Forlong-cycleoffshore,thereisaconsensusamongplayersthatarecoveryisnowhereinsightdespitesomeearlyencouragingsignsonexplorationactivit

5、ies.TheotherbrightspotisLNG,whereweareseeingmorepositivecommentaryandpotentialprojectFIDsinthenext6-18months(Thecycleisturningfasterthanweexpected,9July2018).What’schanged:DuetotheexpectedmoderationinNorthAmericanlandbusinesswehavereducedournear-termforecasts.Thechangesaremoreprono

6、uncedforHalliburtonduetoitsrelativelyhigherexposuretoUSland.OurEBITDAforecastsaredownonaverageby7%for2018and8%for2019.ThishasledustolowerourtargetpricesjustforHalliburtonandSchlumberger.Investmentviews:WelikeBakerHughesGE’sself-helpstoryandLNGexposureanddespiteanear-termhiccupdueto

7、USlandwecontinuetolikeHalliburton.WeexpectBakerHughesGEtogeneratealmostUSD700mofcostsavingsin2018alone,ithasexposuretopotentialLNG-relatedgrowth,andisalsoaleaderintheemerging‘digitaloilfield’theme.Halliburton’ssharepricehastakenabeatingposttheQ22019resultson23JulybutwestillrateitBu

8、y.Welikeitsmarket-leadingp