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1、金融危机的五大教训Withtheone-yearanniversaryofthecollapseofLehmanBrothersapproaching,economistsarelistinglessonslearned.AmongthemisRichardBernerofMorganStanley.Herearehisfivelessons,drawnfromapresentationatrecentconferencesponsoredlastmonthbytheCentralBankofArgentinaandel
2、aboratedoninanotetoclientslastweek:1.'Astrongandwell-regulatedfinancialsystemshouldbethefirstlineofdefenseagainstfinancialshocks….[T]hemorefree-marketorientedwewantoureconomiestobe,themoreweneedofficialsupervisionandoversightofourfinancialinstitutionsandmarkets.T
3、hat'sbecausetrulyfree-marketeconomiesinvolveahighriskofbusinessfailure,andcorrespondinghighriskstothefinancialinstitutionsandinvestorsthatlendtoandinvestinthosebusinesses.Akeylessonfromthiscrisisisthatcompetitionamonglendersbreedsinnovation,butalsoinstability.'2.
4、'Aggressiveandpersistentpolicyresponsesarethesecondlineofdefense…[F]rompastcriseslikeJapan'slostdecade,welearnedthatthepersistenceofpolicysupportisalsocriticaltofacilitatebalance-sheetcleanup,offsetthedragontheeconomy,andpreventdeflation…Formarketparticipants,und
5、erstandingjusthowpersistentpolicysupportwillbeisimportant;theywantcentralbankerstomakeacleardistinctionbetweentheendofeasing,whichisnowunderway,andexitstrategiesorthebeginningoftightening,whichlieahead.'20currencydeposit,weprescribeapassonaregularbasis,qilucardac
6、countonaregularbasis),certificatebondsandsavingsbonds(electronic);3.notdrawnonabanksavingscertificate,certificatebondsapplyformortgageloans,acceptingonlythelender3.'Macroprudentialsupervisionandassetpricesshouldbothplaybiggerrolesinmonetarypolicy….Thereisbroadagr
7、eementthataglobalfocusonsystemicriskisneeded.Thereislessagreementonexactlyhowtodefineandimplementit.'4.'Flexibleexchangeratesenhancetheabilityofmonetarypolicytorespondtoshocks.'5.'Globalimbalancescontributedtothecrisisbyallowinginternalimbalancestogrow.…[R]ecessi
8、onishelpingtorebalancetheUSandglobaleconomiesandmarkets.Thequestionnow:Willthisrebalancingprocessbebenignandsustainableforeconomiesandmarkets,orwillitbedisrupt
