7-凯恩斯方案--英文原文

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1、Keynes,GlobalImbalances,andInternationalMonetaryReform,Today凯恩斯、全球失衡与当今国际货币体系改革RobertSkidelskyandVijayJoshi罗伯特·斯基德尔斯基维杰·乔希RebalancingtheGlobalEconomy:APrimer[启蒙书/雷管/底漆/引线]forPolicymakingbyStijnClaessens,SimonEvenettandBernardHoekman(eds)

2、Wednesday,June23,201

3、0ThischapterarguesthattheKeynesPlanof1941fordealingwiththetradeimbalancesofhistimeishighlyrelevanttotheproblemofEastAsian-USimbalancestoday.JustasthefirstBrettonWoodssystemrestedona“grandbargain”betweentheUSandBritain,anewBrettonWoodswouldtestthestatesmanshi

4、poftheUSandChina.TheProblemofGlobalImbalancesAstheworldtentativelyscrambles[快速爬行/匍匐前进/攀登]outoftheworstrecessionsinceWorldWarII,thefutureoftheworldmonetarysystemremainsfirmlyofftheagenda.Theglobaldownturnhadmanyinteractingcauses,butatenable[ 站得住脚的；合理的]viewist

5、hattheaccumulationofreservesbyahandfulofcountriesinEastAsiaandtheMiddleEastplayedakeypermissiveroleinthecollapse.Between2003and2009(measurable)globalreservesincreasedfrom$2.6trillionto$6.8trillion–anaverageannualrateofincreaseofabout15%,atatimewhenglobalGDPg

6、rewatanannualrateof4.4%.Thisamountedtoabigincreaseindeflationarypressure.However,thefactthatthereserveswereheldmainlyindollarsallowedtheUStoavoiddeflation,andinsteadruna“Keynesian”domesticpolicywhichsetthestageforanunsustainableassetandconsumptionboom.Inshor

7、t,therewasanexusconnectingreserveaccumulationbyChinaandexpansionarymonetaryandfiscalpolicyintheUS.ThepurposeofthischapteristohowthattheKeynesPlanof1941fordealingwiththetradeimbalancesofhistimeishighlyrelevanttotheproblemofEastAsian-USimbalancestoday.Itpropos

8、estwomechanismsforalleviatingthecurrentproblemof“symmetricalnon-adjustment”.ThefirstpartoftheessaywillexaminethehistoricalcontextoftheKeynesPlanandthebreakdownoftheBrettonWoodssystem;thesecondwillanalysethepresentproblemofnon-adjustmentandstepswhichcanbetake

9、ntoovercomeit.TheKeynesPlanof1941Inthe1920sKeyneshadcometoseedeflationasthemaincauseofBritishunemployment;andthemainsourceofdeflationarypressureastheunbalancedcreditorpositionoftheUS.Intheory,th