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1、fixedEconomist英汉双语阅读“经济学人”杂志2010年8月19日正文:ChinaandIndiaContestofthecenturyAsChinaandIndiariseintandem,theirrelationshipwillshapeworldpolitics.ShametheydonotgetonbetterAug19th2010AHUNDREDyearsagoitwasperhapsalreadypossibletodiscerntherisingpowerswhoseinteractionandcompetitionwouldshapethe20thcentury
2、.ThesunthatshoneontheBritishempirehadpassedmidday.Vigorousnewforceswereflexingtheirmusclesontheglobalstage,notablyAmerica,JapanandGermany.Theiremergencebroughtundreamed-ofprosperity;butalsocarnageonascalehithertounimaginable.Nowdigestthemainhistoricaleventofthisweek:Chinahasofficiallybecometheworl
3、d’ssecond-biggesteconomy,overtakingJapan.IntheWestthishaspromptedconcernsaboutChinaovertakingtheUnitedStatessoonerthanpreviouslythought.Butstandbackalittlefarther,applyamoreAsianperspective,andChina’slonger-termcontestiswiththatotherrecoveringeconomicbehemoth:India.ThesetwoAsiangiants,whichuntil18
4、00usedtomakeuphalftheworldeconomy,arenot,likeJapanandGermany,merenationstates.Intermsofsizeandpopulation,eachisacontinent—andforalltheglitteringgrowthrates,apoorone.fixedNotdestiny,butstillprettyimportantThisisunchartedterritorythatshouldbeseenintermsofdecades,notyears.Demographyisnotdestiny.Norfo
5、rthatmatterarelong-rangeeconomicforecastsfrominvestmentbanks.TwodecadesagoJapanwasseenasthemainrivaltoAmerica.CountriesashugeandcomplicatedasChinacanunderachieveorcollapseundertheirowncontradictions.Intheshorttermitsotherforeignrelationshipsmaymattermore,eveninAsia:theremay,forinstance,beagreaterr
6、iskofconflictbetweenrisingChinaandanageingbutstillpowerfulJapan.Westernpowersstillwieldconsiderableinfluence.Socaveatsabound.Yetastheyearsrollforward,thechancesarethatitwillincreasinglycomedownonceagaintothetwoAsiangiantsfacingeachotheroveradisputedborder.HowChinaandIndiamanagetheirownrelationship
7、willdeterminewhethersimilarmistakestothosethatscarredthe20thcenturydisfigurethisone.Neitherisexactlycomfortableinitsskin.China’sleadersliketoportrayWesternhypeabouttheircountry’sriseasaconspiracy—apretexteitherto
