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1、fixedEconomist英汉双语阅读“经济学人”杂志2010年8月19日正文:ChinaandIndiaContestofthecenturyAsChinaandIndiariseintandem,theirrelationshipwillshapeworldpolitics.ShametheydonotgetonbetterAug19th2010AHUNDREDyearsagoitwasperhapsalreadypossibletodiscerntherisingpowerswhoseinteractionandcompeti
2、tionwouldshapethe20thcentury.ThesunthatshoneontheBritishempirehadpassedmidday.Vigorousnewforceswereflexingtheirmusclesontheglobalstage,notablyAmerica,JapanandGermany.Theiremergencebroughtundreamed-ofprosperity;butalsocarnageonascalehithertounimaginable.Nowdigestthemainh
3、istoricaleventofthisweek:Chinahasofficiallybecometheworld’ssecond-biggesteconomy,overtakingJapan.IntheWestthishaspromptedconcernsaboutChinaovertakingtheUnitedStatessoonerthanpreviouslythought.Butstandbackalittlefarther,applyamoreAsianperspective,andChina’slonger-termcon
4、testiswiththatotherrecoveringeconomicbehemoth:India.ThesetwoAsiangiants,whichuntil1800usedtomakeuphalftheworldeconomy,arenot,likeJapanandGermany,merenationstates.Intermsofsizeandpopulation,eachisacontinent—andforalltheglitteringgrowthrates,apoorone.fixedNotdestiny,butst
5、illprettyimportantThisisunchartedterritorythatshouldbeseenintermsofdecades,notyears.Demographyisnotdestiny.Norforthatmatterarelong-rangeeconomicforecastsfrominvestmentbanks.TwodecadesagoJapanwasseenasthemainrivaltoAmerica.CountriesashugeandcomplicatedasChinacanunderachi
6、eveorcollapseundertheirowncontradictions.Intheshorttermitsotherforeignrelationshipsmaymattermore,eveninAsia:theremay,forinstance,beagreaterriskofconflictbetweenrisingChinaandanageingbutstillpowerfulJapan.Westernpowersstillwieldconsiderableinfluence.Socaveatsabound.Yetas
7、theyearsrollforward,thechancesarethatitwillincreasinglycomedownonceagaintothetwoAsiangiantsfacingeachotheroveradisputedborder.HowChinaandIndiamanagetheirownrelationshipwilldeterminewhethersimilarmistakestothosethatscarredthe20thcenturydisfigurethisone.Neitherisexactlyco
8、mfortableinitsskin.China’sleadersliketoportrayWesternhypeabouttheircountry’sriseasaconspiracy—apretexteitherto
