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1、42Births,Deaths,andNewDealReliefduringtheGreatDepressionNewDealReliefSpendingandDemographicOutcomesinMajorCitiesDuringtheGreatDepressionPriceV.Fishback,MichaelR.Haines,andShawnKantorrevisedDecember2004March2005FishbackisFrankandClaraKramerProfessorofEconomicsattheUnivers
2、ityofArizona;HainesisBanfiVintnersDistinguishedProfessorofEconomicsatColgateUniversity;andKantorisProfessorofEconomicsattheUniversityofCaliforniaatMerced.AllthreeauthorsareResearchAssociatesoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.WethankLeeAlston,MarthaBailey,HowardBodenho
3、rn,SusanCarter,MarkDuggan,AlfonsoFlores-Lagunes,MichaelGreenstone,JamesHeckman,WilliamHorrace,LarsLefgren,GaryLibecap,RobertMargo,DerekNeal,ArdenPope,RichardSteckel,MelissaThomasson,JohnWallis,andtwoanonymousrefereesforhelpfulcomments.Wehavealsobenefitedfromthecommentsof
4、seminarparticipantsatBrighamYoungUniversity,UniversityofChicago,UniversityofCalifornia,Davis,UniversityofChicago,andandKeioUniversity,UniversityofMassachusettsatAmherst,andconferenceparticipantsattheAll-UCEconomicHistoryConferenceinNovember2004..FishbackandKantor’sworkon
5、thispaperwassupportedbyNationalScienceFoundationGrantNumbersSBR-9708098,SES-0080324,andSES-0214395.Anyopinionsstatedherearetheauthors’andnotthoseoftheNationalScienceFoundation.42ABSTRACTBirths,Deaths,andNewDealReliefduringtheGreatDepressionThispaperexaminestheimpactofNew
6、Dealreliefprogramsoninfantmortality,noninfantmortalityandgeneralfertilityratesinmajorU.S.citiesbetween1929and1940duringthe1930s.Weestimatetheeffectsusingavarietyofspecificationsandtechniquesforapanelof114citiesforwhichdataonreliefspendingduringthe1930swereavailable.Thesi
7、gnificantriseinreliefspendingduringtheNewDealcontributedtoreductionsininfantmortality,suiciderates,andsomeothercausesofdeath,whilecontributingtoincreasesinthegeneralfertilityrate.Estimatesoftherelationshipbetweeneconomicactivityanddeathratessuggestthatmanytypesofdeathrat
8、eswerepro-cyclical,similartoRuhm’s(2000)findingsforthemodernU.S.datainstudiesbyRuhm(2000).Estimatesofth
