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China’sHugeMobileInternetMarketFourmassivelandmarksun-derscoretheimportance–asthoughwedidn’tknow–ofChinaastheworld’stopmobilemarket.First,Chinanowhasmorethan1billionmobilesubscribers(Indiaisn’tfarbehind)–that’smorethanthreetimestheUS.Second,Chinanowhasmorethan150million3Gusers.ThesearethesumofsubscriberstatsfromthethreemainChineseoperators.Third,Chinahasmorethan400millionmobileInternetusers(i.e.morethantherearemobilesubscribersintheUS),accordingtoAnalysysInternational.Fourth,Chinaisnowthelargestsmartphonemarketintheworldwith22percent(overtakingtheUSat16percent),accordingtoCanalys.Over1billionmobilesubscribersinChinaAsofMarch2012thecombinedtotalsubscribersofthetopthreeChinesemobileoperators–ChinaMobile,ChinaUnicom,ChinaTelecom–was1,012.5million,accordingtomobiThinking’sarithmetic.Let’sputthisinperspective:7 TherearethreetimesthenumberofmobilesubscribersinChinaasintheUS(331.6million,accordingtoCTIA,November2011).Chinaaccountsformorethanonesixthoftheworld’smobilesubscribers–therewere5,981millionmobilesubscribersworldwideattheendof2011accordingtoestimatesbytheInternationalTelecommunicationUnion(ITU).ChinaMobile,thelargestoperatorontheplanet,has667.2millionsubscribers,that’smorethan1.5timesthenumberofmobilesubscribersinthewholeofAfrica–433millionattheendof2011accordingtoestimatesbytheITU.Indiaisn’tfaroffbreakingtheonebillionmobilesubscribersbarriereither.AttheendofFebruary2011,therewere911.2millionsubscribersaccordingtoTRAI.Over150million3GsubscribersinChinaAsofMarch2012,thecombined3GsubscribersofthetopthreeChinesemobileoperatorsisnow152.1million,accordingtomobiThinking’sarithmetic.Puttingthisincontext:7 3Gsubscribersarethenumberofmobileusersthathavemobilebroadband(3Gstandsforthird-generationtelecoms)aspartoftheirmobilepackage.Youdon’tneeda3Gnetwork,3Gphoneor3GsubscriptionortoaccessthemobileWeb,butitwillmaketheexperiencebetterandcheaper.ThusmobileWebusagecanbeconsiderablyhigher(aswewillseeinthenextsec-tion)thanthenumberof3Gsubscribers.Nordoes3Ghandsetmeansmartphone–lotsoffeaturephonessupport3GandcanaccessthemobileWebperfectlywellandspeedily.Currently15percentofChinesemobilesubscriptionsare3G.Thisisslightlybehindtheglobalaverageof20percent,considerablybehinddevelopednationsat48percent.ThesefiguresarecalculatedfromITUstats.Butitisn’tgoingtostaythatwayforlong.Thepaceofgrowthisstaggering.ThelasttimewedidthisresearchinNovember2011,therewere118million3Gusers,nowthereare150million:that’sanincreaseof34millionpeopleinfourmonths…nowthatisprogress.Over400millionmobileInternetusersinChina7 Therewere431millionmobileInternetusersinChinaattheendofQ4,2011accordingtoestimatesbyAnalysysInternational,aBeijing-basedresearchconsultancy.IfAnalysysiscorrect,thentherearemoremobileWebusersinChinathanthepopulationoftheUSorEurope.MobileInternetusersaregrowingstrongly,up8.6percentonthepreviousquarter–atthatrate,wecouldseehalfabillionChinesemobileWebusersthisyear.AnalysysestimatesthatrevenuefrommobileWebwas25.18billionyuan(US$3.99billion)inQ42011andtotalrevenuefor2011was86.22billionyuan(US$13.7billion).Theannualrevenuebreaksdowntotrafficcharges41.8percent;mobileshopping12.5percent;mobileadvertising3.5percent;andmobileapplicationsandservices42.2percent(itisnotentirelyclearwhatthislattercategoryincorporates).ChinaisnowthelargestmarketforsmartphonesInQ12012,Chinarepresented22percentofglobalsmartphoneshipments,whiletheUS(formerly7 thelargestmarket)accountedfor16percent,accordingtoestimatesbyCanalys.KnowingthatChinanowhasthreetimesasmanymobilesubscribersastheUS,thisshouldn’treallysurpriseanyone.Itwasalwaysamatterofwhen,ratherthanif,thiswouldoccur.(Infact,rivalanalystgroupStrategyAnalyticssuggestsChinaactuallyovertooktheUSinsmartphoneshipmentsbackinQ3,2011).CanalysnotesthatthenumberofsmartphonessoldinChinadoubledinQ4,wheresalesintheUSrosebyjust5percent–youhavetoask:doesthisindicatethattheUSsmartphonemarketisstagnating?SohowmanysmartphonesareactuallysoldinChina?Canalystellsusthatglobalsmartphoneshipmentswere146millionunits(IDCagrees),so22percentmeans32millionsmartphoneshavebeensoldinChinainQ4.That’splentytogethandsetmanufacturersexcited,butat3.2percentofChinesemobilesubscribers(thepercentageofUS7 subscribersbuyingsmartphonesis7percent),you’dguessit’sgoingtobemultiplequartersbeforesmartphonepenetrationbecomesreallysignificantinChina.Theinterestingthingisthatregardlessofsmartphonepenetration,therearealready431millionmobileInternetusersinChina,whichdrumshomethepointthatyoudon’tneedasmartphonetoaccesstheWeb.AndwhatsmartphonesareChinesepeoplebuying?Quarterlysalesfiguresshouldcomewithahealthwarning,astheyareapoorindicationofmarketpenetration.Howeverthecurrentstateofplay,accordingtoCanalys,is:Samsung,Apple,Nokia(mirroringwhat’shappeningglobally),butlocalmanufacturersZTE,HuaweiandLenovoare“hotontheheelsofthetopthree”.WithSamsung,ZTE,Huawei,LenovoandmoreallbasingtheirsmartphonesonAndroid–theGoogle-backedoperatingsystemnowaccountsfortwo-thirdsoftheChinesesmartphonemarket.TogetthehistoricalperspectiveofChinese7 smartphonemarket,seeresearchfromAnalysysInternationalwhichchartsthedeclineofNokia’sSymbianandtheriseofAndroidthrough2011.Andwhataboutfeaturephones?WhatCanalysorAnalysysdon’ttellusistheall-importantratiobetweensmartphoneandfeaturephonesalesinChina,butconsideringthatglobally36.4percentofmobilehandsetsalesaresmartphonesand63.6percentarefeaturephones(source:IDC,Q4,2012),you’dexpectthatmajorityofpeopleintheworld’stopmobilemarketwillactuallybebuyingfeaturephonesratherthansmartphonesfortheforeseeablefuture.Herearethetophandsetvendors(featurephonesandsmartphonesinChinainQ1/Q42011),accordingtoAnalysysInternational).NoteSamsungovertakingNokia(mirroringglobaltrends)andtherapidriseinmarketshareofthelocalheroesHuawei,ZTEandLenovo.7