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1、SimulationNutrientLoadunderClimateChangeConditionandDeforestationScenariosinPhuLuongWatDinhBinhPhanandThanhHaiNguyenFacultyofResourcesandEnvironmentalScience,ThaiNguyenUniversityofAgricultureandForestry,ThaiNguyenCity280,VietnamReceived:June25,2011/Accepted:July29,2011/Published:February20
2、,2012.Abstract:Thepurposeofthispaperistoapply“SoilandWaterAssessmentTool(SWAT)”modeltosimulatetheimpactsofclimatechangeanddeforestationonnutrient(nitrogenandphosphorus)yieldfromPhuLuongwatershedinNorthernVietNam.AmongthethreeclimatechangescenariosB1,B2andA2,whichrepresentedlow,medium,andhi
3、ghlevelsofgreenhousegasemissionrespectively,weresetupforVietNam.TheB2scenariowasselectedforthisstudy.Twolandusescenarios(S1-2030andS2-2050whichconverted4.43%,and13.40%15forest-mixedlandintoagriculturalland,respectively)wereformulatedbycombinationwithclimaticchangeinSWATsimulation.InB2clima
4、techangescenario,meantemperatureincreases0.7oC(2030)and1.3oC(2050);annualrainfallincreases2.1%(2030)and3.80%(2050)withrespecttobaselinescenario.TheresultsshowedthatmonthlyNash-SutcliffecoefficientofEfficiency(NSE)rangedfrom0.81to0.96andpercentbias(PBIAS)rangedfrom-7.88to9.38.Additionally,S
5、WATsimulationresultsalsoshowedthatclimatechangeanddeforestationcausedsignificantpercentageofchangesintotalNandPloadswithinPhuLuongwatershed.Keywords:SWAT,climatechange,deforestation,nutrientyield.1.Introduction??Globalclimatevariabilityandchangearelikelytoaltertrendsandtimingofprecipitatio
6、nandotherweatherdriversandimpactterrestrialandaquaticecosystemresponses.Similarly,landusechangesassociatedwithmajorshiftsincrop15productioncanhavemajorimpactsonwatershedhydrologicandwaterqualityresponse,suchastherecentshifttocornproductionassociatedwithethanol-basedbio-energydevelopment[1]
7、.Thescientificconsensusisthatfutureincreasesoftemperaturewillresultinelevatedglobal-meantemperatureswithsubsequenteffectsonregionalprecipitation,evapotranspiration,soilmoistureandalteredflowregimesinstreamsandrivers[2].SoilandWaterAssessmentTools[3]knownasSWAT
