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ID:10902113
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页数:6页
时间:2018-07-08
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1、7、已知我国粮食产量Q(万吨、农业机械总动力(万千瓦)、化肥施用量(万吨)、土地灌溉面积(千公顷)。(1)试估计一元线性回归模型DependentVariable:QMethod:LeastSquaresDate:10/09/12Time:21:20Sample:19781998Includedobservations:21CoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. X10.6080260.03910215.549720.0000C25107.081085.94023.120120.0000R-s
2、quared0.927146 Meandependentvar41000.89AdjustedR-squared0.923311 S.D.dependentvar6069.284S.E.ofregression1680.753 Akaikeinfocriterion17.78226Sumsquaredresid53673653 Schwarzcriterion17.88174Loglikelihood-184.7138 Hannan-Quinncriter.17.80385F-statistic24
3、1.7938 Durbin-Watsonstat1.364650Prob(F-statistic)0.000000则样本回归方程为(23.12)(15.55)r2=0.93括号内的数字为回归系数对应的t统计量的值,以下同。DependentVariable:QMethod:LeastSquaresDate:10/09/12Time:21:21Sample:19781998Includedobservations:21CoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. X25.9094730.3567
4、4716.564880.0000C26937.69916.697229.385590.0000R-squared0.935241 Meandependentvar41000.89AdjustedR-squared0.931833 S.D.dependentvar6069.284S.E.ofregression1584.623 Akaikeinfocriterion17.66447Sumsquaredresid47709547 Schwarzcriterion17.76395Loglikelihood-18
5、3.4770 Hannan-Quinncriter.17.68606F-statistic274.3953 Durbin-Watsonstat1.247710Prob(F-statistic)0.000000则样本回归方程为(29.39)(16.56)r2=0.94DependentVariable:QMethod:LeastSquaresDate:10/09/12Time:21:23Sample:19781998Includedobservations:21CoefficientStd.Errort-Statist
6、icProb. X31.9468770.2708957.1868270.0000C-49775.6212650.60-3.9346450.0009R-squared0.731070 Meandependentvar41000.89AdjustedR-squared0.716916 S.D.dependentvar6069.284S.E.ofregression3229.199 Akaikeinfocriterion19.08825Sumsquaredresid1.98E+08 Schwarzcriter
7、ion19.18773Loglikelihood-198.4266 Hannan-Quinncriter.19.10984F-statistic51.65048 Durbin-Watsonstat0.300947Prob(F-statistic)0.000001(-3.93)(7.19)r2=0.73(2)对以上三个模型的估计结果进行结构分析和统计检验。①对回归方程的结构分析:α1=0.61是样本回归方程的斜率,它表示我国粮食产量的边际消费倾向,说明农业机械总动力每消耗1万千瓦,将生产0.61万吨粮食。α0=2510
8、7.08,是样本回归方程的截距,它表示不受农业机械总动力的影响的粮食产量。他们的大小,均符合经济理论及目前的实际情况。②统计检验:r2=0.93,说明总离差平方和的93%被样本回归直线解释,仅有7%未被解释,因此,样本回归直线对样本的拟合优度是很高的。给出显著水
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