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1、Stiritup:HowChina’smessofagenciesandinterestscoulddragBeijingintoconflictIslandlivingisgenerallyapeacefulaffair.The613officialChineseresidentsofSanshacityinthemiddleoftheSouthChinaSeaaremostlycareerfishermen,leadingsimplebutslowlymodernizinglives.InJuly,thecityre
2、ceivedwhatwassurelythebiggestnewsindecades:BeijingnamedSanshaastheadministrativecenteroverseeingtheSpratlyandParacelislandsandsurroundingwaters.Theelectionoftheisland’sfirstmunicipalcongresscamewithplansforanewmilitarygarrisonontheisland,embroilingregionaltension
3、s.VietnamandthePhilippines,whichbothclaimareasoverwhichBeijinggaveSanshapower,denouncedthedecision.ButBeijing’sstrongrhetoricandnewmilitarygarrisonmaysimplybeafeintaimedatdeterringVietnamandthePhilippinesfromassertingmoreinfluenceintheregion.Beijing’scentralpolic
4、y6towardtheseaistodelayanymajorchangesinthestatusquo,accordingtoMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyassociateprofessorTaylorFravel,whospecializesinChina’sterritorialdisputes.Asseveralanalystsputit,BeijingisfollowingDengXiaoping’srecommendationthatChina“hideyourbrig
5、htness,bideyourtime,”inhopesthatitsnextgenerationofleaderswillbeinabetterpositiontoresolvetheconflict.ChinaislikelytoseektomaintainthestatusquointheSouthChinaSeathroughoutitsonce-in-a-decadeleadershiptransition,inwhichthevastmajorityofgovernmentofficesarehandedof
6、ftonewleadership,saidJenniferRichmond,ChinadirectoratstrategicanalysisfirmStratfor.Beijing’stoppriorityduringthetransitionismaintainingstability.Butevenafterthetransition,newleadershipisunlikelytochangeitspolicytowardthesea,shesaid.Beijingtreatsterritorialclaims–
7、suchasTibetorTaiwan–ascentraltonationalidentity,andtheSouthChinaSeaisviewedinasimilar6light.Becausethepresumednextpresident,XiJinping,willneedtoconsolidatehispowerafterthetransition,hewillbeunlikelytoriskappearingweakbytakingamoreconcil-iatorystance.“If[Xi]isseen
8、asbeingsoftontheSouthChinaSeathenhislegitimacyandhisabilitytomaintaincontrolwouldpotentiallytakeanosedive,”Richmondsaid.hideandabideButcentralgovernmentpolicym
