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1、4December2017Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchStrategyU.S.EquityStrategyResearchAnalystsECONOMICSANDSTRATEGYJonathanGolub,CFA2123256239jonathan.golub@credit-suisse.comEquityStrategyNavigator–December2017PatrickPalfrey2123257970Sincetheelection,investorsh
2、avefocusedonwhetherornotataxbillwouldpatrick.palfrey@credit-suisse.comgetthroughCongress.WithsuccessfulvotesintheHouseandSenate,ManishBangard,CFAattentionisnowshiftingtowardeconomicandmarketimplications.Evenafter2123256632manish.bangard@credit-suisse.comth
3、ePresidentsignstaxreformintolaw,company-levelimplicationswillremainDanaNentin,CFAunclearforquitesometime.Theonlycertaintyisthatinvestorswillbeleftwith2125385287greateruncertaintyonthetrajectoryofcorporateearningsandcashflowsfordana.nentin@credit-suisse.com
4、2018-19.Assuch,webelievethemarketwillfocusonfourkeyissuesovertheEricaCidnearterm:2125388148erica.cid@credit-suisse.com1)EffectiveTaxRate.Whilethecurrentstatutoryrateis35%,companiesarepayingonly27%onaverage.Whilespecificsareunclear,investorsarepresumingthen
5、eweffectiveratewillmovetoward20%.Ifthechangegoesintoeffectin2018,consensusEPSwouldjumpfrom$146to$160.2)PotentialUpside.Historically,investorshaverewardedrevenuesandEBITmarginsmorethantaxes.Assuch,wewouldexpectmuch—butnotall—oftheimprovementinEPStopassthrou
6、ghtostockprices.Theexhibitbelowhighlightsthatthetaxbenefithasnotyetbeenfullyrealized.3)GreatestBeneficiaries.Giventhatthefullextentoftaxreformisdifficulttoascertain,werecommendthatinvestorsfocusonrelativebeneficiaries.Listsofpotentialwinnersandlosersarehig
7、hlightedonpages59-66.4)EconomicandSecondOrderEffects.Thefullimpactofthenewtaxcodeisimpossibletocalculategivenyetunknownbehavioralchanges.Theseincludetheuseofrepatriatedassetsforcapex,buybacks,andM&A,aswellasthestimulativebenefitstoconsumerspending.Relative
8、ReturnofHighTaxRateStocksWithintheS&P5001041021004%move98overprior96week9492ElectionDayNov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Source:Standard&Poor’s,FactSet,CreditSuisse.Note:Returnscalculatedasthedifferen
