汇丰银行-亚洲宏观-asean perspectives：fiscal policy：the quiet growth engine-20170630-hsbc

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1、30June2017ASEANPerspectivesECONOMICSASEANFiscalpolicy:thequietgrowthengineThestrongupturninexternaldataandimprovinglabourmarketJosephIncalcaterraEconomistindicatorshaveledthecyclicalimprovementacrossASEAN…TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedJoseph.f.incalcaterra@hsbc.com.hkB

2、utsince2016,fiscalpolicyhasturnedgraduallymore+85228224687supportiveofgrowth,backedbyrevenue-enhancingreformsNoelanArbisEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedFiscalpolicyisslowlybecomingamoreeffectivestabilizationNoelan.arbis@hsbc.com.hk+85228224325forceacrosstheregion,but

3、itisfarfromperfect…MaitreyiDasAssociateAmidstallthenoiseofthecurrentcyclicalrecovery,withexportsstillrisingbydoubleBangaloredigitsandnear-recordlevelsofelectronicsoutputacrossASEAN(albeitbothareshowingdeceleratingmomentum)itiseasytolosesightofthelessflashyundercurrentthathasbeensupportiveofg

4、rowthsincetheregion’scyclicaltroughin2015:fiscalpolicy.Wehavewrittenaboutthistrendbefore.Unfortunately,inthepast,fiscalpolicyinASEANhastendedtobeacautionarytale.Forexample,withsignificantfiscalconstraintsinMalaysiaandIndonesia,therewerealwaysfearsoffiscalslippage,aperennialconcernofratingage

5、ncies(see:ASEANPerspectives:Thinwallets:WhatfiscalslippagemeansforASEAN).However,thestabilizationofoilprices–albeitatalowlevel–alongsideanrevenueandexpenditure-basedreformssuggeststhatspendingisleanerandmoregrowth-enhancingthaninthepast,evenamidstfiscalconsolidationincertaincountries.Forthet

6、imebeing,fiscalpolicyoffersmoreupsideratherthandownsideriskstogrowth.Thismattersmostfortheregion’sinfrastructureplans(see:ASEANPerspectives:Fillingtheinfrastructurepothole),akeyfactorinboostinglong-termproductivityandcompetitiveness.Regionaldevelopmentexpenditurehasincreased(butnoteverywhere

7、),andinmanypartsoftheregion,governmentshaveimprovedPPPframeworksandarebetterutilizingprivatefunds,especiallyinMalaysiaandthePhilippines.ThenthereistheChinaangle.ThereisapipelineofapproximatelyUSD77bnofChinese-fundedinfrastructureprojectsinMalaysia,