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1、12February2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchSpecialtyFinanceAircraftLeasingOutlookResearchAnalystsANNUALMosheOrenbuch2125386795moshe.orenbuch@credit-suisse.comLeaseExpirationsRelevantasProprietaryJamesUlan2123258235SurveySuggestsPotentialforRatePressurejam
2、es.ulan@credit-suisse.comConclusion:Wearewatchingleaserenewalsmorecloselyinthecomingyearsforsignsofratepressure,thoughstillpositiveonAERandAL.Ourviewsontrafficgrowthandairlinefinancialhealtharepositive,thoughweconductedtwosurveysofairlinefleetmanagersandnowascr
3、ibehigherprobabilitiesto(a)Chinacontinuingaggressivecompetition,(b)thepotentialforsomeleaseratepressureonoutgoingtechnologyaircraft–oursurveyssuggestthatfleetmanagersexpectleaseratestrengthintheA320neofamily,butthepotentialforweaknessinrates/valuesofoutgoingtec
4、h(737,A330,777,andtoalesserextenttheA320)18-24monthsfromnow.■Surveylimitations:Wecollectedasolidsamplesize(23respondentsinourfirstsurveyand24inoursecond)howeveroursurveyhasnotablelimitations.First,itwascompletedentirelybyairlinefleetmanagerswhomayhavemoreofaneg
5、ativebiasonleaserates/valuesthananaircraftleasingexecutive.Second,oursamplesizesaremoderateat23and24responses.Third,thisisthefirsttimewehaveconductedthesurveysowedonothavepriorsurveydatatoanalyzetheaccuracyofsurveyresponses.Fourth,oursurveyswereconductedbefore/
6、atthebeginningoftherecentincreasein10yeartreasuryyields.■SurveyresultssuggestconfidenceinA320neofamilybutpessimisminoutgoingtech:Responseswere(a)optimisticonA320/321neorates,(b)neutralon737MAXrates,(c)bearishonrates/valuesofoutgoingtech(737,A330,777,andtoalesse
7、rextenttheA320)whichwillbereplacedwithnewtechnology(A320neo,737MAX,A330neo,and777x)overthecomingyears.Additionally,responsessuggestaneutralviewonratesfortheA350and787families.AERappearstohavetheleastriskfromexpiringcurrenttechnologyleasesgivenitsmodestaccelerat
8、ioninleaseexpirationsin'18,'19,and'20,whereasALandAYR'swillseealargerincreaseinexpirationsin'20/'19vs'18.■Risinginterestrateswillbeamodestnegativeatfirst,butwilleventuallybe