麦格理-马来西亚-宏观经济-马来西亚策略：3季度gdp核心数据解读

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1、MALAYSIAMalaysiaStrategyMGSbondyieldvsMSGforeignholding3Q17GDPstats:keyread-throughs55%5.0%Conclusion50%4.5%45%40%4.0%Consensus-beating3Q17GDPgrowth(+6.2%YoY)waspunctuatedbymany35%3.5%positivedatapoints,inparticularacceleratingrealwagegrowth,expanding30%3.0%currentaccountsu

2、rplusandcappeddebtratios.Policy-wise,higheroilpricesn-15pr-15ul-15t-15n-16pr-16ul-16t-16n-17pr-17l-17ct-17areprovidingfiscalroomtomanoeuverevenasmonetarypolicyadoptsaJaAJOcJaAJOcJaAJuOtighteningbias,thoughratehikesareonlyexpectedpost-elections(GE14;ForeignownershipofMGS(%)li

3、kely2Q18).WiththeRinggitonafundamentallyfirmerfootingandtheKLCIMGS10Yyield(RHS)10%offitsyearhigh(9%TSRvs.12mthbottom-up1,822KLCItarget),still-elusivecorporateearningsmomentumiskeytomarketrecovery.FavouredSource:Bloomberg,BNM,MacquarieResearch,November2017sectorsarebanks,cons

4、tructionandlogistics-whilstGLCReformremainsastructural,over-archingtheme,renewedtractionisonlylikelypost-GE14.Big-USDMYRvs.BrentoilpricescappicksareTenaga,Sime,CIMB,Telekom,Hartalega,AirAsiaandPOS(M).ImpactUS$/bbl704.503Q17macrostatsimpress:Malaysia’s3QGDPgrowthof6.2%(conse

5、nsus604.0050expectation:5.7%)wasthefastestpacesince2Q14,underpinnedbystrength40inprivateconsumption,netexportsandaboostfromthepublicsector(Fig2).3.5030The3Qfiscalbalancesurprisedpositivelywithoverallbalancesurplus(Fig4),3.0020whiledouble-digitexportgrowthsawcurrentaccount(CA

6、)surplusexpandingto3.7%ofGNI(Fig12;2Q:3.0%),continuingitsreboundfrom1Q’s1.7%low.n-15JaMar-15May-15Jul-15Sep-15Nov-15Jan-16Mar-16May-16Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Policyreversalsinprogress:AsoilpricesremainwellabovebothbudgetedUSDMYRCrudeoil(RHS)(US

7、D52/bbl)and1H17average(USD52.2/bbl),andtaxcollectionsarestrong,Source:Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,NovemberfiscalbreathingroomhasexpandedandmaybedeployedaheadofGE14,2017reinforcingGDPmomentum.Ontheflipside,CPIaveraging4%YTD(vs.3-4%target)andrisingoffshorerateshadBNMsignalling

8、shifttotighteningbiasMalaysia:exportandimportgrowth–weappearin-linewithcons