麦格理-新兴市场-投资-什么在吸引着我？军队哗变或违约，都不是问题-20170908-macquarie-what caught my eye v.79 army mutiny＆ default-no problems

《麦格理-新兴市场-投资-什么在吸引着我？军队哗变或违约，都不是问题-20170908-macquarie-what caught my eye v.79 army mutiny＆ default-no problems》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、GLOBALWhatcaughtmyeye?v.79Armymutiny&default–noproblemsInthisissueweaskwhetherinvestorsarerunningunacceptableEMrisks.InJan’17mutinybrokeoutintheIvoryCoastwithtroopstakingcontrolofthekeycities.Whileresolutionwasfoundwithin72hours,afollowonmutinyoccurredinMay.Sincei

2、ndependencein1960,IvoryCoastregressedfromoneofFrance’smostprosperousformercoloniesintoastatewreckedbycoupsandcivilwars.Ithasalsobeenaserialdefaulter.In‘11itsuspendedpaymentson‘10bonds,whichinturnwereissuedaspartofre-structuringofsecuritiesissuedin‘98,whichwerepart

3、ofre-structuringofloansmadein‘70s-80s.DespitethisInsidechequeredhistoryandlessthanamonthafterthelatestmutiny,thecountryinPointofnoreturn–worldofnorates2Jun’17attractedalmostUS$10bninbidsforUS$1.9bnissuanceat6.25%for16yearsand5.125%foreightyears.Inthesamemonthinves

4、torsplacedUS$9bnEMEquities–betterwaytogetexposure8for16-yearSenegalbondsat6.25%andArgentina(anotherserialdefaulter)Appendices11issued100-yearbondsat7.92%.InJul-Aug’17Greeceissued5-year(€)bondsat4.63%whileIraqsold5-yearbondsat6.75%.Ukraine’s10Ybonds(US$)areEMHighYi

5、eld/USSovereignBondnowtradingatonly7.3%.ItseemsthatthetimemightberightforevenNKorSpreads(%)–downto~300bpsSyriatoissuebonds.ConsideringthattheUS10Yare~2.2%and30Yat~2.8%,7.50spreadsarenownotmuchmorethan300bps,againstwhatisarguablythe7.006.50safestsovereign.6.00Howca

6、nonerationalizesuchinvestorbehaviour?Wedonotbelievethatold5.505.00clichéofinvestorsreachingforyieldanylongerdoesjusticetowhatisoccurring.4.50Itiseitheramassivebubbleoralternatively,investorsperceivethattheFed4.003.50wouldbeunabletoraisethecostofcapitalandthatsecul

7、arstagnation3.00dominates.Thelatterisinaccordwithourview(here)thatthecostofcapitalcan14141515151516-16161617-17-17ug-ayug-ayugnevergoupandindeedmightneedtocontinuefalling,ultimatelyperhapsturningANov-Feb-May-Aug-Nov-Feb-MANov-Feb-MAEMHY/USSovereignBondspreadsnegat

8、ive.UnlessprivatesectorproductivityrecoversorthereisadramaticshiftSource:Bloomberg;MacquarieResearch,Septemberinpublicpolicies,supplyofcapitalmustexpand