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1、August3,201706:09PMGMTMuniMonthlyDashboardMORGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCMichaelDZezas,CFASTRATEGISTMichael.Zezas@morganstanley.com+1212761-8609FastTimesinMuniHYMarkTSchmidt,CFASTRATEGISTMark.Schmidt1@morganstanley.com+1212296-8702Despiteplentyofheadlinerisk–PREPA,Tobacco,Illinoi
2、s,AlexanderWVentrigliaSTRATEGISTWestinghouse–munisralliedtoreturn0.7%asthecurvebullAlexander.Ventriglia@morganstanley.com+1212761-3462steepened.Broadmunirelativevaluewaslittlechanged,asisourcautiousview.RecentpublicationsfromMunicipal&PolicyStrategyTheMonthinCredit:Mun
3、iMacroReport:TheIllinoisInvestorPlaybookBudgetWoesFlyfromSpringfieldtoHartford:ConnecticutbudgettalksMuniStrategyBrief:FivePocketsofRelativeValueinhitanimpassejustasIllinoisresolvedatwo-yearplusstandoff.UnlikeTax-ExemptsIllinois,Connecticut'sspendingisnotcompletelyonau
4、to-pilot,whichThe'Reregulation'Playbookshouldmaketheimpassesomewhatlesscredit-negative.LocalaidcouldbeatriskinConnecticut,however–apotentialnegativeforfinanciallyAccountingPolicy:Ready.Set.HedgestressedHartford.Exhibit1:Market-impliedtaxraterises2ppto27%50%40%NuclearMa
5、yBeGoingOutofStyle,butWaterCapexIsNoFAD:SCANA30%andSanteeCooperabandonedtheirtwonuclearpowerplantsunder20%10%0%constructionattheVCSummerstation.Insodoing,SanteeCooperjoinsaJan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17M
6、ay-17Jun-17Jul-17ImpliedTaxRaterosterofpublicpowerutilitieswhosedebtloadsreflectthelegacyofSource:MMD,TheYieldBook,MorganStanleyResearchfailednuclearprojects.Butbycancelingnow,theoutlooklooksmorelikeLIPA/LILCOandlesslikeWPPSS.Bycontrast,wethinktailrisksinwatercapexcoul
7、dbemorepertinenttothemarket,iflesswellreported.Thismonth,thelargestutilityissuerinthemarket(NewYorkCityMunicipalWater)releaseditsdraftrenewalofitsFiltrationAvoidanceDetermination.TheFADallowsthecitytoavoidspendingbillionsoncostlywaterfiltrationequipment(astheEPAwouldot
8、herwiserequire)bypreservingtheCatskillswatershedinstead.PREPAringfortheWorst:PREPAabandoneditsRestructuringSupportAgr
