资源描述:
《德银-新兴市场-信贷市场-拉美与中东欧企业信贷2018展望》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCorporateCreditDate7February2018EduardoVieiraResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-7568eduardo.vieira@db.comLATAMandCEEMEACorporateCreditHimanshuPorwal-2018OutlookResearchAnalyst(+44)2075474234himanshu.porwal@db.comInthispublication,wep
2、resentour2018outlookforLatinAmerican(LATAM)andCEEMEAhard-currencycorporatecredit,aswellasourupdatedviewsandXavierOlaverecommendations.WealsoprovidetablesandchartswithcreditResearchAnalystfundamentals,relativevaluemetricsandbondvaluationfiltersforcompanies(+1)212250-
3、6135indifferentsectors,andtakeacloserlookatthecreditratingsandnewxavier.olave@db.comissuancetrendsacrosstheseregions.MyBuiMacroBackdropandGeneralOutlookResearchAssociate(+1)212250-5725Thefavorableglobalmacrowindsof2017arestillmostlyinplacetoday.Thesemy-p.bui@db.comw
4、indscomeprimarilyfromstillacceleratingandmoresynchronizedgrowthamongkeyDMandEMmarkets,plentyoffinancialliquidityfromstill-expandingG3centralbankbalancesheets,andrelativelycontainedDMinflation,alltogetherresultinginincreasedinvestmentandportfolioflowstoEMeconomiesand
5、markets,highernon-agriculturalcommodityprices,andstrongerEMFXrates.ThisbenignmacrobackdrophasthusbeentricklingdowntoEMcorporatesviacheaperandplentifulcapitalaswellashighermarginsduetoincreaseddemandforproductsandservicesandstrongerpricingpower,boostingprospectsforle
6、verageandassetcoveragemetrics.WethusexpectthecreditprofileofmostLATAMandCEEMEAcorporates(financialsandnon-financials)tocontinuetoimprovein2018andbelievethevastmajorityofthemhaveappropriatebuffers.GeneralStrategyandMainRisksAftertwoyearsofstrongperformanceandwithbond
7、spreadsclosetohistoricallows(inabsolutetermsandrelativetoUScorporates),wehaveamildlyconstructivestanceonEMcorporatesin2018(base-caselowsingle-digittotalreturnestimate),basedonpositivemomentumoncreditfundamentals(acceleratingandsynchronizedglobalgrowth,containedinfla
8、tion,strongercommodities)andmarkettechnicals(lackofmajoroutflowsdespiterisingUSrates,focusonliabilitymanagementinLATAMandCEEMEA,strongloca