德银-中国-建材行业-中国水泥业新秩序

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1、ChinaCementDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina18October2017HongKongChinaCementTaiwanIndustryUpdateResourcesConstructionMaterialsTriptakeaways-theneworderinChinacementJohnsonWanChinacementtripinWest,EastandSouthChinapostNationalHolidaysResearchAnalystWehavereturnedfromacementtrip,vi

2、sitingtheentireconstructionvaluechain.Ourbiggesttakeawayisthatcompanieswhocontrolupstreamresourceswill+852-22036163dominateinthenewlandscapeofsupplysidereformorenvironmentalprotection.KeyChangesClinkerresourcesareincreasinglytightandinventoriesarelow,aslargeplayersCompanyTargetPriceRatingarered

3、ucingexternalclinkersalesandoverseasexports.Aggregatesandsand0914.HK37.00to40.00-priceshavealsomorethandoubledasaresultofenvironmentalmeasures,1313.HK6.15to6.49-providingaprofitablebusinessextensionforcementplayers,giventheirnatural600585.SS33.60to34.80-advantage.Largeplayerswhohavehigherenviron

4、mentalstandardsarealsoina0586.HK22.03to23.52-positiontogainalotofmarketshare,withConchSeptembervolumesup10.5%Source:DeutscheBankyoy.Givenhighercoalprices,large-scaleproductionhaltsin4Qandalready-lowToppicksinventories,4Q17isshapinguptobeoneofthestrongestquarterswehaveWestChinaCement(2233.HK),HK

5、D1.28Buyseensince2011,promptingourearningsupgrades.Headinginto2018,weseeAnhuiConchCementBuyfurtherhikestocementpricesonthebackofstrongerpricecoordinationand(600585.SS),CNY24.21thepotentialfor32.5Rgradecementremoval.ThedemandoutlookisalsoquiteConchVenture(0586.HK),HKD15.24BuySource:DeutscheBanks

6、trongwithmanylarge-scaleinfrastructureprojectsduetostartimmediatelyposttheCPCmeeting.Ourtoppicksare:Conch-A,ConchVentureandWCC.Structurallyhigherandmorestablecementprices;2017justthebeginningWeremainconstructiveon2018cementASPsas:1)peakshiftingproductionFigure1:2018E:DBevs.Conshaltswillstepupin

7、strength,2)therearehigherproductioncostsfromEPS(RMB/sh)DBeCons%diffenvironmentalcostsandelevatedcoalprices,and3)thereisgreaterpricingpowerConch-H2.9022.55613.5%byleadingproducersthroughcontrollingclinkerresources.Conch-A2.9022.572