德银-中国-建材行业-中国建材行业实地考察结论

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1、ChinaCementDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina15January2018ChinaCementResourcesConstructionMaterialsForecastChangeCNBMupgrade-conclusionsfromsitevisitsJohnsonWanDeepdiveintoCNBM’sbusinesssegmentsinsecondweekofJanuaryResearchAnalystWehostedamaterialstripvisitingt

2、hefourmajorbusinesslines(cementandaggregates,fiberglass,gypsumboardandlithiumseparator)ofCNBMand+852-22036163Sinoma.NotonlydoweconcludethatthecementbusinesswillstayhealthyKeyChangesin2018,weseethedominantmarketsharebyCNBMingypsumboardandCompanyTargetPriceRatingfiberglassaskeyd

3、riverstoits2018earnings,withfurtherupsideafterthe3323.HK8.21to9.69-integrationwithSinoma.ThemergerbetweenCNBMandSinomaisalsotargetedSource:DeutscheBanktobecompletebeforeCNYwiththeremaining6A-sharelistedsubsidiariesastheToppicksspotlightinthenextstageoftheirrestructuring.Weha

4、veupgradedourearningsCNBM(3323.HK),HKD7.93BuyandtargetpriceforCNBMtoHKD9.69/sh.Source:DeutscheBankCompaniesfeaturedCement:stronger-than-expectedpricingin4Q17;highpricingtostayin2018CNBM(3323.HK),HKD7.93BuyWhileCNBM’sGP/taveragedonlyRMB65/tfor9M17,GP/timprovedsignificantly2016

5、A2017E2018EtoRMB85/97/c.120/tinthelastthreemonthsof2017.DuringourvisittoCNBM’sP/E(x)15.911.18.8low-costautomatedcementplantunderChinaUnited,welearnedthatGP/tinEV/EBITDA(x)9.98.88.1ShandongwasunaffectedbyrecentclinkerpricecutsinEastChinaandwasPrice/book(x)0.40.80.7makingarecor

6、dGP/tofc.RMB215/t(ASPwasatRMB395/tcostwasc.RMB180/Source:DeutscheBanktinDecember).Wealsolearnedthatexecutionofthepeak-shiftingproductionhalts(Nov15-Mar15)wentperfectly.ItwasbecauseoftheflawlessexecutionthatledtoashortageandsubsequentlyclinkerimportsintoChina.CNBMarenowintouch

7、withthegovernmenttotrytoimposeadditionaltaxesonsuchimports.Despiteoperatingonly185daysfor2017,theplantstillmadeGP/tofRMB120/tin2017.Ontheotherhand,SWCement(c.30%ofCNBM’scementvolume)priceshadbeenonatearsinceNov17asopposedtopricecutsinEasternChina.GP/tforSWCementalsoreachedc.

8、RMB120/tinDec17.WhileCNBM’sFY17GP/twillonlyaveragec.RMB70/t,webelieve2018GP