德银-新兴市场-新兴市场展望2018：协同增长

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsDateForeignExchange7December2017RatesCreditEmergingMarketsOutlook2018SynchronizedGrowthDrausioGiacomelliSameerGoelHongtaoJiangJulianaLeeElinaRibakova(+1)212250-7355(+65)64236973(+1)212250-2524+85222038312+44(20)7547-1340SpecialReportsE

2、MOutlook:SynchronizedGrowthFX:Growth-ledRevaluationRates:RaisingtheBarsCredit:SqueezingOuttheLastDropsCorporates:TheTideisReceding-WatchtheBedrockDeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.NotetoU.S.investors:USregulatorshavenotapprovedmostforeignlistedstockindexfuturesandoptionsforUSDistributedon:07/1

3、2/201723:13:13GMTinvestors.Eligibleinvestorsmaybeabletogetexposurethroughover-the-counterproducts.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.0bed7b6cf11c7December2017EmergingMarketsOutlook2018:SynchronizedGrowthKeyEconomicForecastsRealGDP(%)Consumerprice

4、s(%pavg)Currentaccount(%GDP)Fiscalbalance(%GDP)2017F2018F2019F2017F2018F2019F2017F2018F2019F2017F2018F2019FGlobal3.73.83.73.03.23.00.40.20.0-3.1-2.8-2.8US2.32.62.22.12.12.2-2.9-3.2-3.5-3.6-2.8-3.2Japan1.51.00.80.30.40.84.14.54.5-3.5-3.0-2.6Euroland2.32.31.71.51.41.53.32.72.1

5、-1.1-0.9-1.0Germany2.32.31.81.71.61.77.26.57.40.90.80.5France1.82.01.61.21.31.4-0.8-0.6-0.6-2.9-2.7-2.9Italy1.61.41.01.31.01.52.92.82.6-2.1-1.9-1.8Spain3.12.92.32.01.51.61.81.71.6-3.1-2.2-1.6Netherlands3.02.52.41.31.61.910.210.210.11.10.50.4Belgium1.82.21.72.21.61.7-1.0

6、-0.7-1.0-1.8-1.5-1.5Austria2.82.52.32.22.01.72.22.52.8-0.9-0.7-0.5Finland2.92.62.10.91.21.6-1.00.00.5-1.2-1.0-0.8Greece1.23.02.21.20.71.1-1.0-0.50.0-1.60.01.0Portugal2.62.01.51.61.21.50.20.00.0-1.4-1.2-1.2Ireland4.14.03.20.31.01.23.83.53.00.10.1-0.4OtherIndustrialCou

7、ntries2.11.92.02.02.02.1-1.0-0.7-0.3-1.2-1.0-0.6UnitedKingdom1.61.01.42.62.52.3-4.5-4.0-3.5-2.5-2.1-1.4Sweden3.02.72.51.82.02.25.04.54.01.01.00.5Denmark2.12.01.91.11.61.67.57.57.0-1.0-0.5-0.5Norway1.82.22.01.91.91.86.06.05.53.54.05.0Switzerland0.92.11.80.50.30.710