兰德公司-俄罗斯的中东战略-2017.8.7-16页

兰德公司-俄罗斯的中东战略-2017.8.7-16页

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时间:2018-03-10

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1、PerspectiveCORPORATIONExpertinsightsonatimelypolicyissueRussianStrategyintheMiddleEastJamesSladden,BeccaWasser,BenConnable,SarahGrand-ClementnSeptember2015,RussialaunchedaseriesofairstrikesinSyria,intheMiddleEastbeyondSyria,todefinethenatureofRussianmarkingthebeginningofasignificantandsustained

2、militaryengagementintheregion,andtodescribethecontoursofaRussianIintervention.ManyintheWesternpolicycommunityweresur-strategyintheMiddleEast.prisedbyRussia’sactions.Arguably,iftheanalyticalcommunityThereisgoodreasontobroadenourunderstandingofRussianhadmoreeffectivelyunderstoodRussia’sinterests,

3、objectives,andstrategyintheMiddleEast.AnalyzingRussianstrategycanhelpapproach,Moscow’smilitaryinterventioninSyriawouldnothavepreventunwelcomesurprises.KnowingwhereandwhenRussiaisbeenasurprise.ThenatureandscaleofRussia’sactionspromptedlikelytocommiteconomic,military,ordiplomaticresourcescantheau

4、thorsofthisPerspectivetoask:Whatelsemightbemiss-allowtimeandspaceforpreemptiveormitigatingactions.TomanyinginthecollectiveunderstandingofRussia’swiderinterestsandWesternobservers,Russia’sregionalengagementandapproachmayactionsintheMiddleEast?1notlooklikeastrategy:Itfocusesontheshortterm,andmany

5、ofWhiletheliteratureonRussiaintheMiddleEastisextensive,itsactionsappearruthlesslyopportunistic.However,wearguethatrecentanalysishasunderstandablyfocusedonSyria,givinglessaformofstrategycanbediscerned.attentiontoMoscow’srelationswithothercountriesintheregion.Theanalysispresentedherewasdevelopedt

6、hroughtwoAsoflate2016,thislackoffocusonRussianactivityinthebroadersubject-matterexpertworkshopsandastructuredliteraturereviewMiddleEasthadlefttheimportantquestionofMoscow’sregionalofRussianrelationsintheMiddleEast.Thetwoworkshopswerestrategyandlonger-termintentallbutunaddressed.ThisPerspec-conv

7、enedinLondonandWashington,D.C.,in2016.WeengagedtiveseekstoidentifytheimportantelementsofRussianinterestsparticipantsfromRussia,theMiddleEast,Europe,andtheUnitedeconomic,military,andpoliticaladvantageswhilereducingtheRussia’sregion

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