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1、ChinaMobileGamesDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina5July2017ChinaMobileTechnologySoftware&ServicesGamesIndustryUpdateMobileGameTracker-2Q17AlanHellawellJunequartermobilegametrendsThefollowingareourlatestobservationsonChina'sJunequartermobilegamingResearchAnalysttrendsfors
2、tocksundercoverage.+852-22036240Tencent-BlendedPC&mobilegameportfoliotrackinghealthilyHanJoonKimBasedonourmobiletracker,weestimate2Q17mobilerevenuestobe~RMB14bnResearchAnalyst(+8%QoQ)versusourcurrentoutlookofRMB15bn(+17%).WhileTencent+852-22036157releasedseveralsuccessfultitlesin2Q17,
3、suchasLegacyTLBB(ranked#3),Contra(ranked#4)andHeroesofMightandMagic(ranked#10),thetitleswereToppicksreleasedintothesecondhalfofthequarterandmayhaveastrongercontributionNetEaseInc.(NTES.OQ),USD300.63Buyin3Qthan2Q.Meanwhile,longerdeferredrecognitionforHoKandseasonalityChangyou.comBuymay
4、bedampeningnear-termmomentumrelativetoourearlierexpectation.ThatLimited(CYOU.OQ),USD38.76said,wesuspectourPCgamerevenueestimateofRMB12.4bn(fromRMB14.1bnTencent(0700.HK),HKD279.20Buyin1Q17)couldbeconservative,asPCgamemomentumforLoLandD&FappearsSource:DeutscheBankhealthyandmayexceedoure
5、xpectation.Asaresult,weexpectoverallIVASrevenuecouldbebroadlyinlinewithourexpectationofRMB34.7bn(-1%QoQ).CompaniesfeaturedNetEaseInc.(NTES.OQ),USD300.63Buy2016A2017E2018ESeparately,weexpectminimalimpacttoHoKgrossbillingsfromTencent'sself-P/E(x)13.219.521.5imposedmeasurestocurtailexces
6、siveHoKgameplaybyminors.AccordingtoEV/EBITDA(x)10.014.616.0third-partyJiguangdata,3.5%ofHoKgamersareunder14yearsofageandPrice/book(x)4.95.64.822.2%arebetween15and19yearsofage.Moreimportantly,averagedailyTencent(0700.HK),HKD279.20Buyplaytimebasedonthepastsixmonthaverageisestimatedat47.
7、2minutes,2016A2017E2018Ewellwithinthe~2hourlimitimposedonminors.Asaread-across,PCgameP/E(x)31.535.526.6time-spendrelatedregulationsinKoreaorThailandinthepasthavehadlimitedEV/EBITDA(x)19.721.916.6impactonoverallindustrydynamicsandlessonsfromJapansuggestpre-emptivePrice/book(x)8.79.87.4
8、self-
