巴黎银行-外汇策略-巴黎银行导引-20170911-bnp paribas-bnp paribas steer

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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:BNPParibasLondonBranchMichaelSneyd,CFA,GlobalHeadofFXStrategy&Cross-AssetStrategistNatalieRickard,FXStrategistUSDSGDshorttermvalue(FV=1.3603)USDJPYshorttermvalue(FV=108.73)1.401141.391.381121.371101.361081.351061.341.3310414-Jun-20171

2、4-Jul-201714-Aug-201714-Jun-201714-Jul-201714-Aug-2017STEERUSDSGDSTEERUSDJPYBNPParibasSTEER™Model-TradingSignalsEntryDatePositionEntryRateTargetStopLossCloseRateReturn(%)SignalsUpdatedTodayNewSignals11-Sep-17LONGUSDSGD1.34301.35071.3391-0.00ClosedSignals–nocloseds

3、ignalstodayExistingSignals08-Sep-17LONGUSDTRY3.40243.43013.3886-0.2508-Sep-17LONGUSDRUB56.899357.532056.5830-0.8031-Aug-17SHORTUSDTHB33.21333.01033.315-0.26RecentlyClosedSignals24-Aug-17LONGNZDUSD0.7208--0.7273(08-Sep-17)0.9106-Sep-17SHORTEURSEK9.4868--9.5409(07-S

4、ep-17)-0.5707-Sep-17LONGUSDCLP616.7300--614.7500(07-Sep-17)-0.32Notes:STEERsignalsthatrecentUSDweaknessversusEMappearssomewhatoverdone,andtodayhasaddedalongUSDSGDsignaltoitsexistinglongUSDTRYandlongUSDRUBsignals.USDSGD’sfairvaluehasdeclinedsincetheendofAugustasg

5、lobalequitymarketshaverecovered,buttheextentofthedeclineinUSDSGDspotappearsoverdoneaccordingtoSTEER.USDTRYandUSDRUB’sSTEERshavealsodeclinedwithboththerecoveryinglobalequitymarketsandasbothTurkey’sandRussia’sCDShavetightened,butthedeclineinUSDTRYandUSDRUBspotappea

6、rsoverdone.InG10,mostpairsaretradinginlinewiththeirfairvalues,withUSDJPYclosetoitscurrentSTEERof108.73.EURNOKisstartingtoappearovervalued,however,versusitsSTEERof9.2511.STEERtookprofitonitslongNZDUSDsignallastweekafterthepairconvergedbacktoitsSTEER.Pleaserefertoi

7、mportantinformationattheendofthereportwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comBNPParibasSTEER™Model–G10Deviationfromshort-termvalue(z-score)3.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0NZDUSDUSDJPYUSDCADAUDUSDGBPUSDEURSEKEURGBPEURNOKEURCHFEURUSD04-Sep-201711-Sep-2017CurrencyNZDUS

8、DUSDJPYUSDCADAUDUSDGBPUSDEURSEKEURGBPEURNOKEURCHFEURUSDSTEER0.7333108.731.21190.80101.30469.49960.88949.25111.10231.1604Spot0.7250108.401.21400.80401.31