德意志银行-中国水泥产业-1h17 preview:trending ahead of full year estimates;up cycle continues-20170717-deutsche bank

德意志银行-中国水泥产业-1h17 preview:trending ahead of full year estimates;up cycle continues-20170717-deutsche bank

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页数:50页

时间:2018-03-10

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1、ChinaCementDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina17July2017HongKongChinaCementTaiwanIndustryUpdateResourcesConstructionMaterials1H17preview:Trendingaheadoffull-yearestimates;upcyclecontinuesJohnsonWanEarningsbeathighestforWCC,SinomaandConchfollowedbyCRCSincetheinflectionpointinJul-16,ceme

2、ntpricingin1H17hascontinueditsResearchAnalystupwardtrajectorywithnationwidecementpricesupanaverageof32%yoy.+852-22036163Thestrongpricehikesmeanmedianearningscouldriseby~71%forcementcompaniesunderourcoverage.AlthoughcementpriceswillcorrectinJuneandKeyChangesJulyduetoseasonality,wearealreadyseeingsi

3、gnsofpricestabilizationinsomeCompanyTargetPriceRating0914.HK35.30to36.10regionsasthesecondroundofpeakshiftingproductionhaltskicksin.Basedon600585.SS32.70to32.90ourestimates,cementcompaniesin1Hwouldhavealreadyachieved48%offull-3323.HK3.70to3.69yearconsensusearnings,presentingupsideriskstoStreetearn

4、ingsupgrades.2009.HK4.60to4.71Whilethemagnitudeofearningsincreasewilllikelydeclineinto2H,cementprices601992.SS4.26to4.29shouldstillsee~13%growthin2Hevenifweassumeflatcementpricingfrom1893.HK3.73to3.81here.1101.TW36.06to35.421102.TW29.14to24.96Upsidesurprises:lowinventories,aggregatesandRMBappreciat

5、ion0586.HK21.04to20.77On26October2016,theMIITandtheenvironmentalbureauintroducedSource:DeutscheBankmandatoryproductionhaltsfor15provincesinnorthernChinafrom2017-2020,rangingfrom100to150daysperyear.Similarproductionhaltmeasureswerealsorolledoutinanother13provinces,reducingclinkerandcementsupplyFigu

6、re1:1H17Eachievementsignificantly.Asaresult,1H17inventorylevelsacrossChinawereatthelowest1H17EFY17FY17%of%oflevelonrecord,helpingASPsrebound.Amongthecompanies,BBMGsawtheEPSDBeEPSConsEPSDBeEPSConsEPSConch1.222.382.2151%55%sharpestASPrecoverygivenitsexposuretoNorthernChina.TheaggregatesCRC0.230.490.4

7、547%50%CNBM0.080.260.4732%18%segmentshouldalsodoverywell,withNP/tmorethandoublingin1H,andplayWCC0.040.090.0843%45%BBMG0.170.320.3154%56%aroleinstrongearningsbeatweexpectforConch.ThesurpriseappreciationofSinoma0.1

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