GEMs 2014 Year Ahead.pdf

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1、GEMs2014YearAheadGEMFixedIncomeStrategy&Economics

2、Global25November2013EMisdead,longliveEM!AlbertoAdes+16468554044GEMFI/FXStrategy,EconomistMLPF&SGEMEconomiesin2014:DM1EM0,butitsonlyhalftimealberto.ades@baml.comSomeconsideredEMdeadaftertheFedpulledthetaperinggenieoutofthebottle.JaneBrauer+16468559

3、388Wedisagreed,andstilldo.IncreasedresiliencetoexternalshocksduetobetterQuantitativeFIStrategistMLPF&Sfundamentals,strongerbalancesheets,andmoreflexibleexchangerateregimesjane.brauer@baml.comshouldpreventarepeatoftheseverevolatilityEMexperiencedinthe1990s.WeMarcosBuscaglia+16468552582forecastamode

4、rategrowthrecoverynextyear,withEMGDPrising4.9%.TheLatAmEconomistclosingoftheoutputgapshouldpushEMinflationupto5.3%,from4.7%in2013.MLPF&Smarcos.buscaglia@baml.comGEMDebt&FXin2014:expectedreturns,flowsandissuanceHakBinChua+6566780409For2014,weforecastmodestreturnsof1.9%,0.7%and0.3%forlocaldebt,EMAS

5、EANEconomistFXandexternalsovereigndebt,respectively.WeexpectrelativelystrongLDMMerrillLynch(Singapore)hakbin.chua@baml.comreturnsinLatAmandverypoorreturnsinAsia.Currencyreturnforecastsaregenerallyweakinallregions,withafewbrightspots.WeexpectfundflowstoDavidHauner,CFA+442079961241EEMEAFI/FXStrategi

6、ststabilizeinabaselinescenarioofgradualFedtapering,andamodestincreaseinMLI(UK)EXDissuance,withabout75%ofitinthecorporatemarket.david.hauner@baml.comClaudioIrigoyen+16468551734Theme1:OnsurfersandworkersLatAmFI/FXStrategistTheEMslowdownsince2007islargelyduetoweakerproductivitygrowth.WeestimateMLPF&

7、Sclaudio.irigoyen@baml.com2014potentialgrowthof4.6%fortheGEM-10,butmostarearound3%.ClaudioPiron+6565910401Theme2:TheGEMcrystalballgoesglobalEmergingAsiaFI/FXStrategistMerrillLynch(Singapore)ForecastingEMGDPgrowthwithaGlobalVARmodelpointstoupsideriskstoclaudio.piron@baml.comconsensus.MexicoandKore

8、ashouldbenefitthemostfromUSstrength.SeeTeamPageforFullListofContributorsTheme3:ShouldweworryaboutforeignparticipationinEM?Roughly50%ofthesurgeinforeignparticipationinEMisstructural.EMdebtstilllooksstructurallyun