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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchNorthAmericaIndustryDateUnitedStatesMetals&Mining22June2017IndustrialsMetals&MiningRecommendationChangeChrisTerry3Q17Upstreamupdate:CautiousonResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-5434bulks;NeutralonPreciouschris.terry@db.comFreecashflows
2、tillappealingbutremainingselectiveonequityexposureJorgeBeristain,CFAUpstreamminingequitiescontinuetomakestrongfreecashflowwithcostsResearchAnalystyettore-inflatemeaningfullyandlowcapex(bothsustainingandgrowth),(+1)203863-2381however,wedonotbelievethissc
3、enariowillcontinuemediumtermsowejorge.beristain@db.comremainselective.IndustrialPriceTargetsaremainlylowerbasedoncopper,ironoreandzincpricedowngrades.MostPreciousPTshavealsobeenloweredCorinneBlanchardbasedonourcontinuedneutralviewongoldandsilverandsomea
4、djustmentsResearchAssociatetooperationalforecasts.InPrecious,wehaveBuysonNewmont,Barrick,(+1)904645-2360WheatonPreciousMetalsandPanAmericanonvaluation.Additionally,incorinne.blanchard@db.comIndustrials,weretainBuysonVale,FirstQuantumandTeck.Becomingmore
5、cautiousIndustrialcommodities,neutralongoldKeyChangesOurironoreforecastsaredown9%in2017($63/t)butup3%in2018/19CompanyTargetPriceRating($55/t/$57/t),versusspotof$56/t.Wehavealsocutour2017/18copperforecastsby3%/1%to$2.58/lb/$2.57/lbandzincby14%/2%toABX.N2
6、2.00to-21.00(USD)$1.21/lb/$1.13/lb.InCokingcoal,ourforecastsare3%lowerto$187/tin2017FCX.N14.00to-butour2018forecastof$115/tremainsunchanged(90%pricerealization13.00(USD)assumedforTeck).Ingold,ourforecastsareup4%in2017to$1,250/ozbutGG.N16.00to-stillbelow
7、spotat$1,282/oz.Ourgoldforecastin2018isdown1%to15.00(USD)$1,240/ozwithmacroheadwindsbalancedagainstpotentialpoliticalKGC.N3.80to4.00(USD)-risk/globaluncertainty.Ingeneral,wealsocontinuetolikemetalsexposedtoNEM.N44.00to-theElectricVehiclethematic,however
8、,forlithiumspecifically,wesee2017as42.00(USD)akeyyearofsupplyadditions(MtMarion,MtCattlin,Wodgina)sowebelieveSSO.TO14.50to-thereisriskthatpricingmomentumslowsby4Q17/1Q18.14.00(CAD)VALE.N12.50to-BalanceSheetsingoodshapeprovidingim
