巴克莱-美股-美国reits2q2017收入预览-u.s. reits reits earnings preview 2q17

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1、EquityResearch17July2017U.S.REITsEARNINGSPREVIEWREITsEarningsPreview:2Q17U.S.REITsNEUTRALREITsinourcoverageuniversebeginreporting2Q17resultstomorrow(7/18)withUnchangedPLD.Weexpect+1.7%FFO/psgrowthY/Yin2Q17forourcoverageuniverse;weforecast+2.7%foroperatingFFO,wh

2、ichexcludesnon-recurringitems.ForFY2017,weForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandforecast3.2%Y/YgrowthinreportedFFOps;+4.1%growthonanoperatingbasis.Ourearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseeprojectedFY2017CAD/psgrowthis+8.4%.tableonpage2.Goinginto2Q17earnings,wet

3、hinkreportedresultswillbeconsistentwithourU.S.REITsconstructiveviewofcommercialrealestatefundamentals.SupplyhasremainedRossL.Smotrichrelativelydisciplinedanddemandissolidacrossmostpropertytypes.Thatsaid,both+12125262306late-cycleconcernsandrisinginterestratesre

4、mainanoverhangforthebroaderREITross.smotrich@barclays.comuniverse.Assuch,andinthecontextofslowinggrowth,weremainNeutralontheBCI,USgroup.WecontinuetoseeupsidepotentialinnamesthatpresentamismatchbetweenMichaelWeinstein,CFAvaluationandgrowthprospects.Inthatvein,we

5、likeBXP,DLR,KIM,ESSandMAA+12125261979goingintoearnings.Oursub-sectorviewsareasfollows:michael.weinstein@barclays.comBCI,USApartments:Weexpectfewearningssurprisesin2Q17givenrecentupdatesprovidedbymultifamilymanagementteamsatNAREIT.Welookfor;i)commentaryLindaTsa

6、ionmomentumduringpeakleasingseason,andii)revisionsto2017guidance.+12125269937linda.tsai@barclays.comOffice:Officeoccupancyremainssteadywhilerentgrowthremainspositive–albeitBCI,USsomewhatsubdued.Deliveriesareforecasttoincreasein2H,butcontinuedhighDanOcchionero,

7、CFAlevelsofpre-leasingsuggestabsorptionshouldnotbeanissue.+12125267164Industrial:Occupanciesareatrecordhighsandlandlordshavepricingpower.Dan.Occhionero@barclays.comBCI,USCompetitionfore-commerceretailingmarketshareisdrivingdemand,atrendthatissustainable.Weexpe

8、ctapositivereportfromPLDhighlightingthesetrends.TrevorYoung+2125263098Technology:Weexpectthatdatacenterfundamentalsremainedsolidduring2Q17.trevor.young@barclays.comBCI,USR