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ID:8219688
大小:724.06 KB
页数:11页
时间:2018-03-10
《巴黎银行-南非-宏观经济-南非宏观状况:摆弄泰勒》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、SouthAfrica:TinkeringwithTaylorVariouscalibrationstotheTaylorruleofferamixedbagintermsoftheSouthAfricanAuthor:ReserveBank’sprospectivemonetarypolicyin2018.JeffreySchultzSeniorEconomistWiththeinflationtrajectorysofter,theoutputgapsettocloseslowlyandpoliticalrisksabating,BNPParibasSouthAfric
2、aweseeroomfordovesonthemonetarypolicycommitteetoreappearinthecomingmonths.Wecontinuetoexpect25bpcutstothereporateinMarchandMaytoendtheyearat6.25%.Background:RevisitingtheTaylorruleforSouthAfrica1StillusefulinassessingWerevisitourpreviousworkondevelopingvariouscalibrationsofthewell-known‘Tay
3、lorrule’monetarypolicyforSouthAfricanmonetarypolicy(pleaseaskforacopyofSouthAfrica:Theruleshavechanged,dated2June2014).Historically,therulewasseenasusefulinassessingtheadequatelevelofpolicyratesinaneconomyandinhelpingtoassesstheperformanceofpolicymakerswhotargetspecificlevelsofinflation.Ther
4、ule’srigidityhasbeencriticisedovertheyears–particularlyaftertheglobalfinancialcrisisandeventoday,withmonetarypolicystillultra-laxfordevelopedcountriesintheUSandtheeurozone.Nevertheless,webelieveitisusefulinevaluatingmonetarypolicy’scurrentsuitabilityandpredictability.WeestimateasimpleTaylorr
5、uleforSouthAfricaasfollows:i=r*+π*+1.5(π−π*)+0.5y……………….(1)(whereiisthenominalpolicyrate,r*thelong-runorequilibriumrealinterestrate,π*thecentralbank’sinflationobjective,πthecurrent-periodinflationrateandythecurrent-periodoutputgap).Subjective:balancingInparticular,thecoefficientsoftheTaylorr
6、ule(appliedtothedeviationofactualinflationfrominflationtargetvsgrowthtargetedinflationandthedeviationofactualGDPgrowthfromdeemedpotentialGDP)aresomewhatsubjectiveinnature.Foraneconomythatisstrugglingwithsizeablestructuralgrowthandemploymentproblems,likeSouthAfrica’s,givingmoreweightingtoinfl
7、ationtargetsversusgrowthisarguablyimpractical.Indeed,itshistoricalpolicyratepathsincethefinancialcrisisshowsthattheSouthAfricanReserveBank(SARB)hasgenerallymaintainednominalpolicyrateswellbelowwhattheTaylorruleimplies–though,notably,thetwoseriesali
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