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1、CHAPTER1GETTINGTHEPOLICYMIXRIGHTFinancialStabilityOvervieweconomicandfinancialstagnationhaveledtoashiftinconsensusandmarket-impliedexpectationstowardFinancialstabilityhasimprovedsincetheOctober2016highergrowth,inflation,andlong-terminterestrates.GlobalFinanc
2、ialStabilityReport(GFSR).GrowthisReflationexpectationshavetakenholdacrossadvancedgainingmomentumandreducingmacroeconomicrisks,economies(Figure 1.3).rekindlinghopesforreflation.RisingequitypricesandAgainstthisstrongereconomicbackdrop,risksteeperyieldcurveshav
3、emitigatedsomeofthenegativeappetitehasincreased,asreflectedinmorebuoyantsideeffectsoflowinterestratesforbanksandinsuranceinvestorconfidence(Figure 1.2,panel 5).Marketcompanies.Emergingmarketrisksremainelevatedbutandliquidityriskshaveeasedfromelevatedlevelsun
4、changed,asrecoveringcommoditypricesandmodestasriskpremiumshavefallenandvolatilityremainsdeleveraginginsomecorporatesectorsareoffsetbyhighersubdued.Thesetrendsinmarketindicatorshavebeenexternalfinancingrisksandrisingfinancialvulner-aglobalphenomenon,startingl
5、astSeptemberandabilitiesinChina.Despitetheseimprovements,thereacceleratingfollowingtheU.S.elections(Figure 1.3,arenewdownsiderisksanduncertaintiesaroundthepanel 3).Expectationsforpolicystimulushavealsopolicyoutlook.AkeyriskisthatU.S.policyimbal-contributedto
6、astrongerdollarandhighernominalancescouldleadtotighter-than-expectedfinancialandrealU.S.Treasurysecurityyields,spillingovertoconditionsandariseinvolatilityandriskaversion.Aotheradvancedeconomybondmarkets.Steeperyieldglobalshifttowardprotectionismcouldadverse
7、lyaffectcurveshavehelpedbanksenhanceprofitability,whiletradeandglobalgrowth.Thus,anchoringstabilitywilltightercorporatebondspreads,lowrates,andampledependheavilyonpolicychoicesatthenationalandmarketaccesshavereducedrefinancingrisks,lead-globallevels—itiscruc
8、ialtogetthepolicymixright.ingtoareductionincreditrisks.Althoughemergingmarketeconomieshavecontinuedtoenhancetheirresilience,higherinflationvolatilityinsomecountriesFinancialStabilityIsAdvancinga
