全球金融稳定报告.pdf

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1、WorldEconomicandFinancialSurveysGlobalFinancialStabilityReportNavigatingtheFinancialChallengesAheadOCT09INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUNDWorldEconomicandFinancialSurveysGlobalFinancialStabilityReportNavigatingtheFinancialChallengesAheadOctober2009Internationa

2、lMonetaryFundWashingtonDC©2009InternationalMonetaryFundProduction:IMFMultimediaServicesDivisionCover:CreativeServicesFigures:TheodoreF.Peters,Jr.Typesetting:MichelleMartinCataloging-in-PublicationDataGlobalfinancialstabilityreport–Washington,DC:Intern

3、ationalMonetaryFund,2002–v.;cm.—(Worldeconomicandfinancialsurveys,0258-7440)SemiannualSomeissuesalsohavethematictitles.ISSN1729-701X1.Capitalmarket—Developingcountries–—Periodicals.2.Internationalfinance—Periodicals.3.Economicstabilization—Periodicals

4、.I.InternationalMonetaryFund.II.Title.III.Worldeconomicandfinancialsurveys.HG4523.G563ISBN:978-1-58906-810-0Pleasesendordersto:InternationalMonetaryFund,PublicationServices70019thStreet,N.W.,Washington,D.C.20431,U.S.A.Tel.:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-72

5、01E-mail:publications@imf.orgInternet:www.imfbookstore.orgEXECUTIVESUMMARYCONTENTSPrefaceixJointForewordtoWorldEconomicOutlookandGlobalFinancialStabilityReportxiExecutiveSummaryxvChapter1.TheRoadtoRecovery1A.GlobalFinancialStabilityMap1B.Challengesont

6、heRoadtoRecoveryfortheGlobalFinancialSystem5C.EmergingMarketsNavigatetheGlobalCrisisbutVulnerabilitiesRemain20D.WillCreditConstraintsHurttheRecovery?27E.ManagingtheTransferofPrivateRiskstoSovereignBalanceSheets34F.PolicyImplications39Annex1.1.GlobalFi

7、nancialStabilityMap:ConstructionandMethodology47Annex1.2.LoanLossandBankWritedownEstimationMethodology53Annex1.3.EstimatingCoreBankEarnings64Annex1.4.CreditDemandandCapacityEstimatesintheUnitedStates,EuroArea,andUnitedKingdom65Annex1.5.TheImpactoftheF

8、inancialCrisisontheSavingsComplex—InsuranceandPensionFunds68References74Chapter2.RestartingSecuritizationMarkets:PolicyProposalsandPitfalls77TheRise,Decline,andFallofSecuritization80PolicyInitiativesAimedatRestartingSustainableSecuritization93