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1、CHAPTER1GETTINGTHEPOLICYMIXRIGHTFinancialStabilityOvervieweconomicandfinancialstagnationhaveledtoashiftinconsensusandmarket-impliedexpectationstowardFinancialstabilityhasimprovedsincetheOctober2016highergrowth,inflation,andlong-terminterestrates.GlobalFinancialStability
2、Report(GFSR).GrowthisReflationexpectationshavetakenholdacrossadvancedgainingmomentumandreducingmacroeconomicrisks,economies(Figure 1.3).rekindlinghopesforreflation.RisingequitypricesandAgainstthisstrongereconomicbackdrop,risksteeperyieldcurveshavemitigatedsomeofthenegat
3、iveappetitehasincreased,asreflectedinmorebuoyantsideeffectsoflowinterestratesforbanksandinsuranceinvestorconfidence(Figure 1.2,panel 5).Marketcompanies.Emergingmarketrisksremainelevatedbutandliquidityriskshaveeasedfromelevatedlevelsunchanged,asrecoveringcommoditypricesa
4、ndmodestasriskpremiumshavefallenandvolatilityremainsdeleveraginginsomecorporatesectorsareoffsetbyhighersubdued.Thesetrendsinmarketindicatorshavebeenexternalfinancingrisksandrisingfinancialvulner-aglobalphenomenon,startinglastSeptemberandabilitiesinChina.Despitetheseimpr
5、ovements,thereacceleratingfollowingtheU.S.elections(Figure 1.3,arenewdownsiderisksanduncertaintiesaroundthepanel 3).Expectationsforpolicystimulushavealsopolicyoutlook.AkeyriskisthatU.S.policyimbal-contributedtoastrongerdollarandhighernominalancescouldleadtotighter-than-
6、expectedfinancialandrealU.S.Treasurysecurityyields,spillingovertoconditionsandariseinvolatilityandriskaversion.Aotheradvancedeconomybondmarkets.Steeperyieldglobalshifttowardprotectionismcouldadverselyaffectcurveshavehelpedbanksenhanceprofitability,whiletradeandglobalgro
7、wth.Thus,anchoringstabilitywilltightercorporatebondspreads,lowrates,andampledependheavilyonpolicychoicesatthenationalandmarketaccesshavereducedrefinancingrisks,lead-globallevels—itiscrucialtogetthepolicymixright.ingtoareductionincreditrisks.Althoughemergingmarketeconomi
8、eshavecontinuedtoenhancetheirresilience,higherinflationvolatilityinsomecountriesFinancialStabilityIsAdvancinga
