Macroeconomic turmoil causes and consequences for pension 养老金的宏观经济动荡的原因和后果 ppt课件.ppt

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1、Macroeconomicturmoil:causesandconsequencesforpensionreformMacroeconomicturmoilFinancialSectorreformrisksconsequencesforcoreporateriskmanagementAverageImpliedVolatilitySTOXX5024monthstomaturityoptionsGrowthisslowingdownagainWheredidthingsgowrong?US:paralysi

2、sbutarethingsperkingup?Europe:ifonlytherewouldhavebeenparalysis…PIIGSisinstitutionalreformthepanacea?sowhatis?thefutureoftheEuroUSHousingPricesYetrecoveryinsight?USunemploymentoutlookgloomyUSunemployment:Obama’spoliciesbasedonmisdiagnosisUSemploymentpolicyr

3、eliesonKeynesianfiscalandmonetarypump-primingButunemploymentstructural?becauseofprolongedhousingboomtoomanyworkersinconstructionsectorandhowdoyoutransformabricklayerintoabookkeeper?Whatisneededfocusedlabormarketpoliciesinfrastructureprojects(necessaryinUS,s

4、ucksupexcesslabor)Butpoliticiansparalysedbecauseofelections11/12UnrestisspreadinginEuropeFlighttoSafetyagain…ButsituationinFrance,Germany,UK…(Lagarde’schainsofcontagion)InterbankcounterpartyworriesarebackCapitalratiosandmarketReality…FutureoftheEurozonebre

5、akupbarelyaverted(Greekreferendumplans…)Howdowegetoutofthecurrentcrisis?GreececontainmenttoGreeceAndhowdowepreventthisfromhappeningagain?ConsequencesofuniformmonetarypolicyFutureoftheEurozoneCentralbudgetcontrolnecessarytocrediblycommittosustainabledebtpros

6、pectsButtheEuroneedsmoreforcohesion:TaylorgraphDoweneedwithin-eurozonefiscaloffsetswhenuniformmonetarypolicyisinappropriate?substituteforfiscalredistribution,labormobility?AndtransferofpowertotheBrusselsjustwhenBrusselsisfailingconspicuously???Macro-volatil

7、ityandthefinancialsectorPensionreformfinancialsectorreform:threatorpanacea?whatdoesitmeanforcorporateriskmanagement?PensionsandRiskRisksharingandpensionsystemsrisksharingcanreduceandreallocateriskifshocksaresystemic(hiteverybody)andpermanent,riskreductionim

8、possiblethroughrisksharingdemographicriskcannotbereducedthrrisksharinginflationrisksystemic,butnotpermanent?idemfinancialmarketrisks?Canriskbereallocatedtogroupsbetterplacedtohandleit?youngcanhandleris