Macroeconomicturmoilcausesandconsequencesforpension养老金的宏观经济动荡的原因和后果

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1、Macroeconomicturmoil:causesandconsequencesforpensionreformMacroeconomicturmoilFinancialSectorreformrisksconsequencesforcoreporateriskmanagementAverageImpliedVolatilitySTOXX5024monthstomaturityoptionsGrowthisslowingdownagainWheredidthingsgowrong?US:paralysisbuta

2、rethingsperkingup?Europe:ifonlytherewouldhavebeenparalysis…PIIGSisinstitutionalreformthepanacea?sowhatis?thefutureoftheEuroUSHousingPricesYetrecoveryinsight?USunemploymentoutlookgloomyUSunemployment:Obama’spoliciesbasedonmisdiagnosisUSemploymentpolicyreliesonKey

3、nesianfiscalandmonetarypump-primingButunemploymentstructural?becauseofprolongedhousingboomtoomanyworkersinconstructionsectorandhowdoyoutransformabricklayerintoabookkeeper?Whatisneededfocusedlabormarketpoliciesinfrastructureprojects(necessaryinUS,sucksupexcesslab

4、or)Butpoliticiansparalysedbecauseofelections11/12UnrestisspreadinginEuropeFlighttoSafetyagain…ButsituationinFrance,Germany,UK…(Lagarde’schainsofcontagion)InterbankcounterpartyworriesarebackCapitalratiosandmarketReality…FutureoftheEurozonebreakupbarelyaverted(Gr

5、eekreferendumplans…)Howdowegetoutofthecurrentcrisis?GreececontainmenttoGreeceAndhowdowepreventthisfromhappeningagain?ConsequencesofuniformmonetarypolicyFutureoftheEurozoneCentralbudgetcontrolnecessarytocrediblycommittosustainabledebtprospectsButtheEuroneedsmoref

6、orcohesion:TaylorgraphDoweneedwithin-eurozonefiscaloffsetswhenuniformmonetarypolicyisinappropriate?substituteforfiscalredistribution,labormobility?AndtransferofpowertotheBrusselsjustwhenBrusselsisfailingconspicuously???Macro-volatilityandthefinancialsectorPensio

7、nreformfinancialsectorreform:threatorpanacea?whatdoesitmeanforcorporateriskmanagement?PensionsandRiskRisksharingandpensionsystemsrisksharingcanreduceandreallocateriskifshocksaresystemic(hiteverybody)andpermanent,riskreductionimpossiblethroughrisksharingdemograph

8、icriskcannotbereducedthrrisksharinginflationrisksystemic,butnotpermanent?idemfinancialmarketrisks?Canriskbereallocatedtogroupsbetterplacedtohandleit?youngcanhandleris