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1、GrowingWorldTrade：CausesandConsequencesPAULKRUGMANStanfordUniversityGrowingWorldTrade:CausesandConsequencesWHATASPECTOFtheAmericaneconomyhaschangedmostinthetwenty-fiveyearssinceBrookingsPapersonEconomicActivityfirstbe-ganappearing?Ifyoutookapollofeconomicjou
2、rnalists,businessmen,orpolicyintellectualsotherthanprofessionaleconomists,globaliza-tion-thegrowingintegrationoftheUnitedStateswiththeworldecon-omy-wouldprobablytopthelist.Itisnowconventionalwisdominmanycirclesthatthegrowthofworldtradeandinvestmenthastrans-f
3、ormedthegroundrulesforeconomicpolicy.Admittedly,manyinternationaleconomistsregardthepopularcon-victionthatunprecedentedglobalizationhaschangedeverythingascon-siderablyexaggerated;Americansarestillsotakenwiththenoveltyofextensiveinternationaltradethattheyhave
4、yettoacquireasenseofper-spectiveaboutitsimportance.Eventodaythesharesofimportsandex-portsinAmerica’sGDPareonlyabouthalfofwhattheywereintheUnitedKingdomthirtyyearsago;theU.S.economyisnotnow,andmayneverbe,asdependentonexportsasBritainwasduringthereignofQueenVi
5、ctoria.Nonetheless,internationaltradehascertainlyin-creasedconsiderablysincethe1960s.In1960theshareoftrade-mea-suredastheaverageofimportsandexportsofgoodsandservices-inAmerica’sGDPwas4.7percent;in1994itwas11.4percent,anincreaseofmorethan100percent.Whilethegr
6、owthoftradehasnotbeenquiteasdramaticinotheradvancedcountries,ithasalsobeenconsiderable:theaverageOECDcountryhadatradeshareof12.5percentin1960,18.6percentin1990.AndanumberofdevelopingcountrieshaveseenIwouldliketothankT.N.Srinivasan,RichardCooper,andWilliamNor
7、dhausforhelpfulcomments.327328BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,1:1995theirtradeexplode:China,virtuallyisolatedfromtheworldeconomybefore1978,maynowexport25percentofitsGDP.Whyhasworldtradegrown,andwhataretheconsequencesofthatgrowth?Thesearesurprisinglydispute
8、dissues.Thisistruetoalimitedextentbecauseofdisagreementsamongprofessionaleconomists,nota-blyabouttherelativeimportanceoftradeandtechnologicalchangeincausingthegrowinginequalityofwagesinadvancedn
