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1、ABGlobalResearch16March2020EquitiesMidstreamPipelinesAmericasReviewingDividendsandDistributionsModelandValuationRefreshWeupdatedourmodelsforthecurrentenvironmentandexpectedchangesgoingforward.Inoursectornote"NewParadigmNeedsANewPlaybook",weupdatedourvaluationformultiplecompressionduetoincreasedCOEi
2、nourbuildupNPVanalysistoincorporatethecurrentandlikelyongoingvolatilityasinvestorsadjuststoamarketwhereOPECisnotcountedontosupportpricingstability,hence,weseeinvestorsunderwritinglowerpricedeckstodeploycapitalandthesameforEnergyCompanies.LowerPriceDeckWeupdatedmodelsforloweroil&NGLpricedecks.TheUBSO
3、ilTeamlowereditsoildeckto$36.50/$42.50/$50.00/bblin20/21/22from$53.24/$51.88/$51.07/bbl.Further,ourNGLdeckfallsto$0.39/$0.46/$0.49/galfrom$0.48/$0.55/$0.57/gal.LowerVolumeAssumptionsWeupdatedourmodelsforlowerproduction.Broadly,weassumeda~10%declineforourCrudeOilandNGLvolumefortheUS.ThatsaidinthePerm
4、ianwelargelykeptproductionflattishforthepublicoperatorsgivencounterparties.ForRefinedproductswelowereddemandfor2Q-4Q20,howeverweexpectapickupinactivityfollowingthecoronavirususingtheUBSbasecase.WhileweseeLPGexportsholdingup,crudeexportswillbeimpactedin2020andmodelledaccordingly,witharecoveryin2021bu
5、tbelow4Q19levels.Onstorage,weexpectthosewithcrudestoragetobenefitinthecurrentenvironment,giventhecontagospecificallyPAA,ETandEPD.DistributionCutsareGood–OPECPresentsOpportunitytoResetAsnotedinoursectornote,webelievedist/divcutsarepositivesgiventhecurrentenvironment.Inouropinionifthosewithelevatedlev
6、erageandyieldsdon’tcutitwillbeanegativetovaluationsandinvestorsentiment.Furtherwebelievethatcutsshouldbesteepenoughtocalminvestors'fears(i.e.75%+),hencewesee25%cutsleavinginvestorsaskingifitwasenough.WenowexpectdistributionordividendcutsforGEL,NGL,TRGP,DCP,WES,ENBLandENLC.OtherlargecapIGnamesatBBB-m
7、aynotneedtocut,butmaywishtodoso,toeitheraccelerateleveragereductiontoachieveBBBand/oruseitforbuybacks,ETwouldbeacandidate,ataminimumgivencurrentvaluationsweseeinvestorspreferringbuybackstoexcessiveyie
