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1、McKinseyandCompany4COVID-19LatestepidemiologicalinformationasofFebruary27,2020CURRENTASOFFEBRUARY27,2020Latestnumbersareavailablefromanumberofsources,includingdailysituationreportsfromtheWorldHealthOrganizationEvidenceonexactnumbersareemerging,howeverexpectedt
2、odecreaseasviralcontainmentmeasuresintensifyandtreatmentsaredevelopedCasefatalitynumbersarereflectiveoftheoutbreaksettinganddependonanumberoffactors,includingpatient'sage,communityimmunity,healthsystemcapabilities,etc.Thisgraphicaimstoofferabroadcomparison.4.E
3、xcludingcruiseship5InoutbreaksettingoratthebeginningoftheintroductionofanewdiseaseSource:WorldHealthOrganizationLow(<2)Medium(2-4)High(>4)KIEFJCZikaDChickenpoxSARS-CoVCOVID-19GPolio5HMeasles5Influenza1918SmallpoxMERS-CoVEbola(WestAfrica2014)AInfluenzaH1N12009B
4、InfluenzaH2N21957Medium(2-15%)High(>15%)Casefatalityratio3ProportionofdeathsamongconfirmedcasesLow(<2%)ReportedconfirmedcasesHighertransmissioncomparedtotheflu21.5-2xUpto20%<1/40PatientshaveseverediseasePatientsdie;fatalityratesaresignificantlyloweroutsideHube
5、iFeaturesofdiseasetodateIdentificationofcasesearlyinthedisease(i.e.,withfewersymptoms),intensificationofviralcontrolmethods,anddeploymentoftreatments(whenavailable)willdrivedownthereproductionnumberandreducecasefatalityComparisontootherdiseasesReproductionnumb
6、er5TheaveragenumberofindividualsinfectedfromeachinfectedindividualImpacttodate1>82,0002,800+47~1/218855%DeathsCountriesaffectedProportionofaffectedcountrieswithnewcasesinthelast7days4Countrieswithanyevidenceofcommunitytransmission(Highest:China,S.Korea,Italy,I
7、ran,Japan,Singapore)Countrieswithmore>50reportedcasesNewreportedcasesareinChinainthelast7daysGlobalconsiderationsNumbersofaffectedcountrieshasrisensignificantlywith>35countrieswithnewcasesinthelast7daysCommunitytransmissionsuspectedinatleast18countries,with>50
8、cases:SouthKorea,Japan,Singapore,andItaly–anumberofcasesarestillunderinvestigationtoidentifysourceofinfectionOversightisintensifyinginweakerhealthsystemslesscapableofhandlingoutbre