麦肯锡 全球新冠发展.pdf

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1、CoronavirusCOVID-19:FactsandInsightsUpdated:February28,2020GlobalHealth+CrisisResponseDOCUMENTINTENDEDTOPROVIDEINSIGHTANDBESTPRACTICESRATHERTHANSPECIFICCLIENTADVICECONFIDENTIALANDPROPRIETARYAnyuseofthismaterialwithoutspecificpermissionofMcKinseyandCompanyi

2、sstrictlyprohibitedCURRENTASOFFEBRUARY28,2020Executivesummary(February28,2020)COVID-19passedaninflectionpointthisweek,withmorenewcasesoutsideChinathaninChinaforthefirsttime.Newcasesincreased~4.5xoutsideChina,whilethoseinChinadecreased~3x1comparedtotheprevi

3、ousweek.However,Chinastillreportedmorethan3,000newcases,demonstratingthattheepidemicisnotoverforthem.Theglobalsurgereflectsanewinflectionpointinthisepidemic.Four‘majortransmissioncomplexes’(i.e.,China,EastAsia,MiddleEast,Europe)arenowactive,withtheUSatatip

4、pingpoint.Governmentsgloballyarepreparingforbroaderspread.OutsideofChina,deepeconomicconnectionsandpeoplemovementswithinthesecomplexeswillmakeitdifficulttostopintra-complextransmission–evenasindividualregionsgounderlockdown,therearelikelytobecontinuedinsta

5、ncesofviral“leakage”.Thislikelihoodisenhancedbythedisease’sinherenthightransmissibility.Additionalspreadthatcreatesnewcomplexesisbeingconsideredaninevitabilitybygovernmentsaroundtheworld.TheU.S.CDC,forexample,hassetclearexpectationsthattheviruswillappearth

6、erewithcommunitytransmission.Scenariostoconsider:[BASECASESCENARIO]Continuedspreadwithinestablishedcomplexespluscommunitytransmissioninnewcomplexesdrives~0.3-0.7%reductionin2020globalGDPgrowthChinacontinuesonitspathtorecovery,achievinganear-completeeconom

7、icrestartbymid-Q2EastAsia,MiddleEast,andEuropeseecontinuedcasegrowthuntilearlyQ2.Thisdriveseachregiontogoundervariousformsoflockdown(e.g.,self-imposed,company-imposed,mandatedbylocalgovernments),inanattempttostoporslowdownthespread.Thelockdowndrivesasharp

8、reductionindemand,whichinturndriveslowereconomicgrowththatlaststhroughQ2andearlyQ3.Demandrecoverydependsonwhethercasegrowthreducesasaresultofseasonality,oriffatalitylevelsarelowenough,wherethegeneralpublicres