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ID:49822851
大小:3.51 MB
页数:65页
时间:2020-03-04
《基于金融状况指数的我国通货膨胀预测研究.pdf》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、ΑȾЩ˼zšϷ˜ßȖȼ˶ǵŖϣΨ͗͜Цʲ̘̆ſ̒hkzϷſſ˯ΜzatȖƑ͎ƯzŽͩϊȭВ́ǵŖαɩƬŚpǺřƬŚ˶īƟwϷ°̭ϠʕÆÏpϷ̿ɹfɂ¤Čw`ɅРαʆʪĄ̀Ψƫȷ̤Ȱ³ƱɴɄ˶ЕЩwı`ɅРwαʆ³r`oɣȸ½ǫχ°wƐƃ΅̾ʳϒͺʞƴ˶ЦʲňĪƻ͚“Ϡʕţ》qϓƵɴwǵŖǺřʆfɂĒ一w͖̏ʆŬƳʪĄwƶiϣΨ͗͜ʞƴƞ一fewŒʔwɹǂ̠③ǵŖƇЊϷǭß˶Ϸ˜ßȖȼƐǵŖΨƫȷ̤Ȱ³͞ÔϴqőХ˾ÔȾ˟ijīˤwŘǂ̛Ϸ˜ßȖȼȖʁϟĬɅРwŬϭéȾ˟šɩϱ˭ƇЊóˠpƇЊɣ
2、ȸʡˠpƇЊǺpƇЊ͖ϕãoĮ϶qŘȖʁ˶ɭϴ̧ɅʧdРŬ͟ɣŐ̑ɅʧwċȓǩЙʠɅ̖͊âDžp͛ÝŊƻéɺpŒźéɺʧpŬŝƃ΅̾ʳʎŝqɩȾŘĦ˓úſ͐ɹǂϷ˜ßȖȼ˶ɅʧwŘdϙŐoĮ϶˶š̈dţĂƇЊΨƫ¸ƻ϶ϕ`Ȗʁwɹϥɞ̠③pŖƇЊŖǭ˶Ϸ˜ßȖȼqŘϷ˜ßȖȼɭϴ˶̧ɅʧdРwɩȾɹǂm̑ɭϴ˶Ϸ˜ßȖȼwšǩЙʠ͊âDžǻ̧å˶Нǥɭϴ˶Ϸ˜ßȖȼuFCI_svĨŘǩЙʠ͊âDž˶š̈dó˭˜ǥ̙Єʎŝɹǂɭϴ̭ȼɌĮ˶Ϸ˜ßȖȼuFCI_mvwϣϑƐʛwòɂm̑ɭϴǻǂ̛˶Ϸ
3、˜ßȖȼŋo͚ɞŴ˶ЦʲϣΨ͗͜uCPIpPPIv˶ĮČqŘЦʲϑ̖pwfϖͺʃɩÙ˶Цʲϔϖͺʃɩũ˶ЦʲwéɺϷ˜ßȖȼƐϣΨ͗͜ɐľƐʃɩÙũ˶ȼȟϯɣǗŴ˶ЦʲȸɻqϣϑƇΓ̘̆Ǚå˶̿Αċȓz`pȖȼpf④˶ϷĮ϶ǻě˶ɭϴżŘɍɑ˶ƨλwΛɍf④Į϶ƐϣΨ͗͜˶ǒŊ̖ƿ{ɑͱf④qϱ˭͇③Īɏ`Ŗóˠpʡˠp˾ÔαʆĨΨƫ¸ƻ϶̢ϷĮ϶˶Ϸ˜ßȖȼʛϱ˭Ė`˶ϷĮ϶ɞ③˧pɞÏРqpϣϑʃɩÙ˶IĄǥ˾ÔǨéɺpʆÒɶŒɻʋЯpVAR͛ÝŊƻéɺwʎŝ˶ʗƨƴɅéɺ˶̿ɻij̃wϷ˜ßȖ
4、ȼƐCPIpPPIŘʃɩÙɣǗŴ˶ЦʲȸɻqƶiFCIŘPPI˶ɡ¤Цʲˆ⑥ɦŬŘCPI˶ɡ¤ˆ⑥ɦwżŘϕʃ˶ƨ。ij͚ɐˮ͝2004Ƶ、ŶˮƞʜƐ̼̞ʷΰʼn˶ЙʠåˤɑͱĮČwˮʔ¶eˁōʼnʆƱĄdˁʼnʆīˬɍɑĮČqcpϷ˜ßȖȼƐCPIpPPIʃɩũ˶Цʲȸɻfū˧Ǯqϣϑ②ʎŝśɅʅΚƨ˶ƐʛéɺwòɂϷ˜ßȖȼɐľ͚Ȫ一ƐCPIpPPI˶Цʲ̬ƿqˮˆ⑥ɦ˶f̊Ƅw͑iƶfɐǻɣ˶ˆ⑥ɦś͚Ȫ一Цʲ̬ƿwϕƙƑ͟ŘЦʲϑ̖pf͚á̊˶̊ƄϷ˜ßȖȼ˶ˆ⑥ɦɴЦʲʃɩũ˶ϣΨ͗͜ȖʁwrЦʲʃ
5、ɩr˶ϣΨ͗͜ţĂЕƿqŒʔwϷ˜ßȖȼŘƇЊЦʲϣΨ͗͜˶ϑ̖p˶ϒ˭đéɣЎw¬ij³röƄȷ̤ϑ̖p˶`oωąĦ͏ƥÖqŐpĄǥɭϴ˶Ϸ˜ßȖȼŘʃɩÙ˶Цʲȸɻ¤Нǥɭϴ˶Цʲȸɻw¬Ɛʃɩũ˶Цʲwm͐˶ЦʲȸɻżŘf̊ƄǨqÔЀΖzϷ˜ßȖȼ^Ąǥɭϴ^Нǥɭϴ^ϣΨ͗͜ЦʲΑȾ̪ŝzʈ·éɺIIAbstractWiththedevelopmentofthecapitalmarket,therealestatemarket,thefinancialsystemandstructure,ont
6、heonehand,assetpricevolatilityhasbroughtnewchallengestothemonetarypolicy.Ontheotherhand,theabilityoftheassetpricetoforecastthemacroeconomiclevelhasbeenimproved.Inrecentyears,thepriceofthehousepricehasbeenimproved,thevolatilityofthestockpricehasbeenincreased
7、andtheinflationisveryhigh.Thus,creatingtheFCIaccordingtoourownfinancialsituationisveryimportanttoourmonetarypolicy.Afterreviewingrelevantliteratures,wecanfindthatmostoftheliteraturesusethevariableofinterestrate,realeffectiveexchangerateandrealstockpriceinth
8、easpectofchoosingindex.Intheaspectofcalculatingweightofindex,wehavefourmethodsofchoosingindex.Intheaspectofcalculatingweightofindex,wehavefourmethodsincludingreduceaggregatedemandequationformula,impuls
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